Despite most of the media nearly having an orgasm over the story of Palin's selection, the latest polling has shown that Palin has done little to add support to McCain. While his base is more enthusiastic, the amount of support he receives is virtually the same since he announced that Palin would be his running mate.
Gallup:
Polling before palin: Obama +8
Poling after palin: Obama +6
Rasmussen:
Polling before palin:Obama +4
Polling after palin: Obama +3
RCP average:
Average before palin:Obama +3.9
Average after palin: Obama +4.5
So the shock of the pick did get a lot of attention but didn't not translate into actual support for McCain. You have to wonder what it will mean if, even after the republican convention, mccain's numbers still aren't moving.
Gallup Notes That Palin Still Has Done Little To Help McCain's Level of Support
OLD American Century / White Rose Society message boards > Political Discussion forums > Politics In General
I saw a poll that showed men are accepting Palin more than women are.
In other words, women aren't buying into McCains schtick. In fact, most are offended.
In other words, women aren't buying into McCains schtick. In fact, most are offended.
QUOTE (sky of mind @ Monday, 1 September 2008, 10:43 am) 
I saw a poll that showed men are accepting Palin more than women are.
In other words, women aren't buying into McCains schtick. In fact, most are offended.
In other words, women aren't buying into McCains schtick. In fact, most are offended.
Right, it seems that conservative men love her. Probably her good looks and 1950's philosophy on women's rights. Right down your average republican man's alley. However, liberal or moderate men and women find the pick to be ridiculous and i am guess some conservative women aren't too keen on this one either. Unfortunately for McCain, conservative men don't make up a large enough portion of the electorate to win the election. I am guessing the ever so slight uptick in McCain's polling numbers are more enthusiastic republicans but unless she can appeal to a large portion of the population, which we will probably know soon enough, then this whole thing will be a disaster, since mccain is banking his hopes on this.
A guy I work with - retired military - that refers to Obama only as "the terrorist"- thinks that Palin is a bad choice. His feeling is that it's a cheap ploy to woo Puma's and it's actually hurt his impression of McCain.
I think it will give him a temporary marginal bump at best. It firms up a little bit of his base that wanted to see someone ultra-pro-life on the ticket, but the majority of the rest of the party is ambivalent about it and I think it will turn more women off than it brings in.
It's the Harriet Meyers of VP picks.
I think it will give him a temporary marginal bump at best. It firms up a little bit of his base that wanted to see someone ultra-pro-life on the ticket, but the majority of the rest of the party is ambivalent about it and I think it will turn more women off than it brings in.
It's the Harriet Meyers of VP picks.
QUOTE (Jimmy @ Monday, 1 September 2008, 10:18 am)
I think it will give him a temporary marginal bump at best.
It appears that is probably what is happening. On friday, i was thinking that he would get a short term, significant bump, maybe to the point where he would be slightly ahead on average. Then it would quickly subside and destroy mccain. It looks like he isn't even getting that. Looks like this could be even worse for mccain than i had hoped. Still a little bit of time before we can conclude that but so far it appears that mccain's gamble isn't paying off. What a shock, right?
Here is a good story from Time Magazine about this. Our old friend Frank Luntz conducted a focus group on Palin and here is what he found. The story is written by someone else, not Luntz.
Another week, another Frank Luntz/AARP focus group of undecided voters--this one in Minneapolis and with some bad news for John McCain: they don't like the choice of Sarah Palin for vice president. Only one person said Palin made him more likely to vote for McCain; about half the 25-member group raised their hands when asked if Palin made them less likely to vote for McCain. They had a negative impression of Palin by a 2-1 margin...a fact that was reinforced when they were given hand-dials and asked to react to Palin's speech at her first appearance with McCain on Friday---the dials remained totally neutral as Palin went through her heart-warming(?) biography, and only blipped upwards when she said she opposed the Bridge to Nowhere--which wasn't quite the truth, as we now know.
Then there was this, from a woman named Teresa, who went to the Democratic Convention as a Hillary delegate and is leaning toward voting for McCain--obviously the target audience for the Palin pick: "His age didn't really bother me until he picked Palin. What if he dies in office and leaves us with her as President? Also she leans toward the rigid right, and I always thought he was a moderate...You know, I change my mind almost every day, but right now I"m wondering where the John McCain I really liked in 2000 went, what happened to the moderate? This John McCain has the look of someone who is being manipulated--probably by Karl Rove."
Teresa still wasn't willing to vote for Obama, whom she considers too inexperienced, but she was clearly wavering. Afterwards Luntz, good Republican that he is, made the case that Palin could win all these people back with a good convention speech, but that seemed far-fetched to me. They really saw this pick as a gimmick--and one that reflected badly on John McCain's judgment.
I'm Not Big On Focus Groups But These Results Can't Be Good For McCain
Another week, another Frank Luntz/AARP focus group of undecided voters--this one in Minneapolis and with some bad news for John McCain: they don't like the choice of Sarah Palin for vice president. Only one person said Palin made him more likely to vote for McCain; about half the 25-member group raised their hands when asked if Palin made them less likely to vote for McCain. They had a negative impression of Palin by a 2-1 margin...a fact that was reinforced when they were given hand-dials and asked to react to Palin's speech at her first appearance with McCain on Friday---the dials remained totally neutral as Palin went through her heart-warming(?) biography, and only blipped upwards when she said she opposed the Bridge to Nowhere--which wasn't quite the truth, as we now know.
Then there was this, from a woman named Teresa, who went to the Democratic Convention as a Hillary delegate and is leaning toward voting for McCain--obviously the target audience for the Palin pick: "His age didn't really bother me until he picked Palin. What if he dies in office and leaves us with her as President? Also she leans toward the rigid right, and I always thought he was a moderate...You know, I change my mind almost every day, but right now I"m wondering where the John McCain I really liked in 2000 went, what happened to the moderate? This John McCain has the look of someone who is being manipulated--probably by Karl Rove."
Teresa still wasn't willing to vote for Obama, whom she considers too inexperienced, but she was clearly wavering. Afterwards Luntz, good Republican that he is, made the case that Palin could win all these people back with a good convention speech, but that seemed far-fetched to me. They really saw this pick as a gimmick--and one that reflected badly on John McCain's judgment.
I'm Not Big On Focus Groups But These Results Can't Be Good For McCain
QUOTE (Jimmy @ Monday, 1 September 2008, 11:18 am)
It's the Harriet Meyers of VP picks.
This is EXACTLY the comparison I had in mind that seems most relevant. "Look how progressive and sensitive I am, nominating a woman!" "You idiot, you've just insulted everyone who knows she isn't a comparable replacement, and you've made a mockery of the whole process by selecting someone so obviously inappropriate."
QUOTE (Libertas @ Monday, 1 September 2008, 11:48 am)
This is EXACTLY the comparison I had in mind that seems most relevant. "Look how progressive and sensitive I am, nominating a woman!" "You idiot, you've just insulted everyone who knows she isn't a comparable replacement, and you've made a mockery of the whole process by selecting someone so obviously inappropriate."
Sarah Palin is to Hillary Clinton as Clarence Thomas is to Thurgood Marshall
A bit of an update. CBS released a poll showing Obama up by 8, so his average lead over mccain has gone up nearly a full point since Palin entered the race.
Also a side note, obama's level of support in RCP's average is the highest it has ever been at 48.8%
Also a side note, obama's level of support in RCP's average is the highest it has ever been at 48.8%
It seems that the only ones who really are caught up in the Palain fever are men and not because of her Political astute answers but, because she's a looker! I heard this comment time and time again from straight men who lean towards the Republican ticket!! My women friends are appalled at the choice McCain made!
The MSM has picked up on the fact that Palins unwed teenage daughter is pregnant.
CNN spent time covering that exclusively, interviewing many Republicans, all of whom tried desperately to spin away from "family values". I also thought it was interesting that at least one guy said Palin was vetted and that McCain knew, which of course simply isn't true.
Just another of the many skeletens to tumble out of this womans walk-in closet.
CNN spent time covering that exclusively, interviewing many Republicans, all of whom tried desperately to spin away from "family values". I also thought it was interesting that at least one guy said Palin was vetted and that McCain knew, which of course simply isn't true.
Just another of the many skeletens to tumble out of this womans walk-in closet.
QUOTE (sky of mind @ Monday, 1 September 2008, 7:14 pm)
The MSM has picked up on the fact that Palins unwed teenage daughter is pregnant.
CNN spent time covering that exclusively, interviewing many Republicans, all of whom tried desperately to spin away from "family values". I also thought it was interesting that at least one guy said Palin was vetted and that McCain knew, which of course simply isn't true.
Just another of the many skeletens to tumble out of this womans walk-in closet.
CNN spent time covering that exclusively, interviewing many Republicans, all of whom tried desperately to spin away from "family values". I also thought it was interesting that at least one guy said Palin was vetted and that McCain knew, which of course simply isn't true.
Just another of the many skeletens to tumble out of this womans walk-in closet.
Your walk in closet quote made me chuckle. Nice!
My former Republican friend, Marty, a Floridian is having a field day with this. He voted for Bush in 2000 but Kerry in 04. He txt msged me today talking about all the skeletons in the GOP closet as well.
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