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Despite Media Narrative, Obama Leads By Over 100 Electoral Votes According To Independent Groups
Posted August 4, 2008 | 09:47 PM (EST)



With all the breathlessness over the minute movements in the irrelevant national polls, the one thing no one seems to be noticing is that the electoral map is still trending very poorly for John McCain ®.

I realize that it cuts against the media narrative right now to focus on anything that doesn't suggest a dead-heat, but it's quite instructive to see how the independent groups (and even right-leaning ones) currently see the state of the race through the only prism that matters -- the Electoral College:

Obama McCain Margin

Real Clear Politics 322 216 Obama +106
Electoral-Vote.com 316 209 Obama +107
FiveThirtyEight.com 303 235 Obama + 68
Pollster.com 284 147 Obama +137
AVERAGE 306 202 Obama +104

If you think about the reporting of the fluctuating state polls lately that show a tight race, all of them involve red states that McCain can't afford to lose: Colorado, Montana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Alaska, Georgia, etc.

Despite the media narrative that a number of blue states are competitive, the truth is none of the recent polling shows McCain making any significant inroads in the blue states. Consider:

In Michigan, McCain had not led in any poll since May;
In Pennsylvania, McCain has not led in any poll April, and a Republican poll released last week showed McCain trailing by 9, in line with the current Pollster.com average;
In New Hampshire, McCain has not led in any poll since April;
In Minnesota, while one recent poll showed McCain within the margin of error, no other poll in the past month (including one poll taken more recently) has him within 12 points.
So, while the media breathlessly reports the national tracking polls which shows a close race, the state polling is still showing a pretty significant Obama lead.

P.S. -- Again reminding us how big of a joke CNN's political reporting has become, their current electoral map has it Obama 221, McCain 189. What a farce.

Mark Nickolas is the Managing Editor of Political Base, and this story was from his original post, "Despite Media Narrative, Obama Leads By Over 100 Electoral Votes By Independent Groups"

This is indeed a key point. While there is some fluctuations in the electoral vote every now and then, every independent analysis for the last two months has rarely shown obama dipping below 300 electoral votes. While the national polls have been somewhat close and do move every now and then (although nothing out of the norm for this point in an election), the electoral vote has been extremely stable and has shown a solid lead for obama . It is funny to watch the media attempt to paint this as a near tie too. Last month a poll was released from Kansas which showed McCain extending his lead over obama and i actually heard someone argue that was a bad sign for obama. I also heard someone say that obama moving from a 5 point lead in Montana to a dead heat is a sure sign that obama is falling apart. Talk about grasping at straws.

In the end, this statement perfectly explains mccain's problem "If you think about the reporting of the fluctuating state polls lately that show a tight race, all of them involve red states that McCain can't afford to lose". McCain seems unable to hold onto states that should be guaranteed wins. A tie or slight lead for McCain in North Dakota, Virginia, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana, Nevada, Mississippi, and Alaska are not signs that McCain is running neck and neck in swing states, which i have heard some argue. These are states that shouldn't even be in play. It would be as if it was tied in Washington, California, Oregon, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Maryland, and we were saying that Obama was in good shape or the election was real close. Did you ever think we would see the day when states that Bush won by 20+ points became dead heats, and yet the MSM is arguing that it is somehow good news for McCain. It is surreal and stunning to watch to programs.

The MSM coverage is one big cluster f*ck this year and can't be trusted.

Based on the polling i have seen so far, i think this is what the electoral map looks like. Blue states are guaranteed obama states, red are mccain, and the rest are swing states.

The thing that confuses the hell out of me, just after watching Dean on MSNBC, is that the democrats aren't talking about it. It's as if they're in collusion... Is it just the free airtime? Is it that they're afraid no one will show up because they feel as though they don't need to?

You mean obama's electoral vote lead? I wouldn't expect him to. He probably wants it to seem closer than it really is. Better that than to seem cocky. I think obama and the DNC are allowing this narrative to continue because they want the republicans to underestimate obama, much the same way clinton did and to lure them into complacency. If they think their current stratagy is keeping it close, when it really isn't, then they are likely to keep running with it. Right now McCain is spending all of his resources in states he isn't going to win, which are Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The polls for obama have been improving in those states over the past few months and mccain has spent millions and millions of dollars of those states. More than he is raising actually. McCain's strategy is a losing one and it is better than he keeps going with it. However, if he thinks it is close, he will stay the course with his plan. If the democrats start pointing out the mccain's plan to win is useless, he might actually listen and change it.

Also, something to go along with your story

Obama's Lead In Gallup's Daily Tracking Poll Is Far More Stable Than Some Think

I think Obama takes Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, maybe FL, potentially IN if he takes Bayh, and the rest except maybe the deep south are in serious contention.

It should end as a pretty decisive Obama victory with any luck, but we're not talking Reaganesque landslide here.

I think obama will pick up ohio, virginia, colorado. I think Indiana, Florida, Montana, and North Dakota will be big question marks on election night.


EDIT: Isn't it also interesting whenever we have a poll that isn't a daily tracking poll, obama does a lot better. A few days ago, CNN had obama by 7 and now the AP has obama by 6? Is he really slipping; i do wonder?

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