http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=648881


A campaign in trouble
Sheldon Alberts, Canwest News Service
Published: Friday, July 11, 2008



WASHINGTON -- It was supposed to be the week John McCain got his political mojo back.

The Republican presidential candidate, trailing Democrat Barack Obama in the polls and struggling for a coherent campaign message, embarked on a five-day barnstorming tour of the American heartland. The goal: to tout his command of the U.S. economy, promote the extension of President George W. Bush's tax cuts and, perhaps above all, to show empathy with folks struggling through some hard financial times.

In Portsmouth, Ohio, and Pittsburgh, Pa. and Belleville, Michigan, Mr. McCain's message was the same: I feel your pain, and I'm here to help.

But then the wheels fell off the Straight Talk Express.

When top McCain economic advisor Phil Gramm branded America "a nation of whiners" -- just as oil hit US$147 a barrel, the stock market sank and economists predicted 2.5 million people would lose their homes in 2008 -- it marked yet another untimely misstep in a GOP campaign that has yet to find its bearings.

Less than four months before the November presidential election, Mr. McCain's uneven performance is causing frayed nerves among Republicans who believed the independent-minded Arizona Senator gave the party its best shot at retaining control of the White House.

Despite having a three-month head start on Mr. Obama in the general election campaign, Mr. McCain's candidacy has been hampered by a collection of policy contradictions, poor communications and minor but embarrassing gaffes.

"There is real concern that McCain hasn't found his genuine voice," says Mark Rozell, a political scientist at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.

The central complaint among Republicans - and conservatives in particular - is that they never know which John McCain will show up on a given day. Will it be the self-styled maverick who woos independent voters, or the Ronald Reagan torchbearer of the GOP primaries?

Seeking solutions to a mounting U.S. energy crisis, Mr. McCain last month delighted conservatives by declaring his support for offshore oil drilling to increase domestic supply. At the same time, he has confounded them by refusing to endorse oil exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.

He has also sent mixed messages to conservatives on illegal immigration. During the Republican primary campaign, Mr. McCain vowed to "secure the border first." But he is also courting Latino voters with a new television ad highlighting his defiance of Republican orthodoxy on immigration.

Most unnerving to some conservatives, Mr. McCain has found himself outflanked by Mr. Obama in pursuit of support among evangelicals, a key GOP base. While Mr. Obama this week endorsed President Bush's faith-based initiatives, Mr. McCain has yet to showcase faith issues in his campaign.

"One of his huge problems is that he doesn't have the conservative vote really locked up, but he is already moving toward the centre on lots of issues," says Merle Black, an Emory University political scientist and co-author of Divided America: The Fierce Power Struggle in American Politics.

"One day he'll say something that's appealing to conservatives, and the next day he'll say something that's appealing to moderates," Mr. Black says. "I think it's the worst of both worlds when he does that."

Then there's the Bush problem.

Many McCain supporters worry the Arizona Senator has not done enough to distance himself from Mr. Bush, or to refute Mr. Obama's persistent charge he is running for "Bush's third term."

Compounding all this have been problems crafting Mr. McCain's image. Too often, his campaign has staged events before older, unenthusiastic crowds that strike a poor contrast with the energy at Mr. Obama's events.

Mr. McCain was widely panned in early June for appearing before an awful green backdrop - dubbed the Lime Green Monster - on the same night Mr. Obama clinched the Democratic nomination before an enthusiastic crowd of 20,000.

Policy and communication problems aside, Mr. McCain has organizational problems that place him at an early disadvantage to Mr. Obama.

Mr. Obama's campaign has announced plans to have campaign staff in every state, and with early visits to places like North Dakota and Montana the Illinois Senator is trying to force Mr. McCain to spend precious campaign resources in typically Republican areas.

According to the Associated Press, Mr. McCain's campaign is "roughly 300-strong compared with Mr. Obama's 1,000-person plus operation."

With criticism mounting, Mr. McCain overhauled his staff last week, installing Steve Schmidt - a Karl Rove protegé from the Bush administration - to bring a new message discipline and focus to the campaign.

"I think it's a sign they don't know what they're doing," says Mr. Black. "There's a lot of dissatisfaction."

Mr. McCain's decision to shake up his campaign was reminiscent of one he made in the summer of 2007, when his campaign for the GOP nomination seemed about to collapse.

"We have been declared dead many times," Mr. McCain said this week. "I think I'll be the underdog right up until a minute before the polls close in California."

For all of the troubles in Mr. McCain's campaign, his supporters say there is cause for optimism.

Mr. McCain just recorded his best fundraising month ever, collecting US$22-million in June.

He is within five percentage points of Mr. Obama in most national polls, despite widespread unhappiness with both the Republican party and the Bush administration.

His favourability ratings are only slightly lower than Mr. Obama's, and more than 20 percentage points higher than Mr. Bush's.

A state-by-state analysis of the U.S. electoral college by pollster John Zogby shows Mr. Obama with 273 electoral votes, Mr. McCain with 160 and another 105 listed as toss-up. To become president, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes.

But Mr. McCain is showing strength in some large battleground states, notably Michigan, Ohio, Florida and Virginia.

"It's definitely not time for Republicans to push the panic button," Mr. Rozell says. "At this stage in 2004, John Kerry was ahead of Bush. [Democrat Michael] Dukakis was ahead [of George W. Bush Sr.] by a lot more 20 years ago. These things are fluid and can change over time."

As Mr. McCain tweaks his campaign, key supporters are urging him to stay true to himself. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani said Mr. McCain should resists efforts to make him a more scripted candidate.

"He won the [Republican nomination] by being himself," Mr. Giuliani told MSNBC.

"I think the American people want somebody authentic. They want someone who's not going to go consult a poll, and they want a leader."