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Full Version: A Quick Note On Why The Polls Are Wrong
OLD American Century / White Rose Society message boards > Political Discussion forums > 2008 Candidates
Jack
Don't worry, the polls are "wrong" in a good way. Most polls out there, in head to head match ups, so Obama leading McCain by 5-7 points. One might argue that isn't a bad lead at all. However, there is a problem and some pollsters are considering a remedy. Most of polling we have seen so far make a fatal assumption, that the country is evenly split between democrats and republicans. However, that assumption is not based in reality. Those who identify themselves as democrats outnumber those who identify themselves as republicans by about 10-15 points.

So, many of these polls that show obama leading by his standard 5-7 points are greatly over representing McCain's support and greatly under representing Obama's support. It is more likely that Obama's lead over mccain is somewhere in the low double digits.

One notable polling company that is thinking about changing their methods to survey more democrats is Rasmussen Reports, so we may soon see a more realistic level of support for Obama.



So the mean time, whenever you see a poll come out that evenly splits the vote between democrats and republicans, obama's lead over mccain is probably closer to double what the poll says.
AntiFlagWaver
Obama may well get the Presidency, and if he does, that too will be Bush's legacy. I personally find myself very conflicted about this upcoming election, and I am not going to automatically throw my support behind Obama simply because he is not a Republican and because of my extreme dislike of the Presidency of George W. Bush. I see a lot to dislike about both candidates.

sky of mind
QUOTE (AntiFlagWaver @ Tuesday, 8 July 2008, 9:01 am) *
Obama may well get the Presidency, and if he does, that too will be Bush's legacy. I personally find myself very conflicted about this upcoming election, and I am not going to automatically throw my support behind Obama simply because he is not a Republican and because of my extreme dislike of the Presidency of George W. Bush. I see a lot to dislike about both candidates.




So what yer saying is, you glass is half empty, and that's the way you intend it to remain?
Jimmy
Sounds more to me like "The glass is half full, but what's left is contaminated anyway."

I can certainly relate sometimes.
sky of mind
QUOTE (Jimmy @ Tuesday, 8 July 2008, 10:21 am) *
Sounds more to me like "The glass is half full, but what's left is contaminated anyway."

I can certainly relate sometimes.




There aren't any of us who can't agree with that.
However, that's not really the point, is it?
AntiFlagWaver
Don't take this as an attack, but I figure someone here has to be an opposing voice to all the grandstanding I see you doing for Obama. It may as well be me. Its about getting down to the truth about who both candidates are, good and bad, and not just a "yay for our side, boo for their side" chorus, which is what I am seeing more and more.
sky of mind
QUOTE (AntiFlagWaver @ Tuesday, 8 July 2008, 5:40 pm) *
Don't take this as an attack, but I figure someone here has to be an opposing voice to all the grandstanding I see you doing for Obama. It may as well be me. Its about getting down to the truth about who both candidates are, good and bad, and not just a "yay for our side, boo for their side" chorus, which is what I am seeing more and more.




Accept that I'm not the only one, and most of my "grandstanding" is simply copy paste from other sources.
And Obama is certainly not the only topic you "discuss"
tommytoons
dry.gif Boys, Boys, calm down!!! LOL!!!
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