And you all said i was crazy when i claimed obama could win montana! Well who is crazy now?! hahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhah
hahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhah
hahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhah
hahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhah
hahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhah
hahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhah
hahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhahahhah!!!!!!!

Anyway, Here Is The Link: Obama 48% McCain 43%

When Utah flips, lemme know.
Other wise it's ho hum.

So you expect obama to do so well this year that having a 25 point swing in a state over 2004 is unimpressive? Well i like your optimism, although your threshold for what is an amazing turn of events is quite high.

Not so high as much as i fully expect Obama to flip a few states, and Montana was not nearly as hard red as many others.
Like I said, flip Utah and you really have something to be excited about.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080704/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp


Obama visits traditionally-Republican Montana
Fri Jul 4, 8:24 AM ET

I lived for 5 years in Anaconda. Because of the copper years, that area is refered to as Butte-Anaconda.
You can bet the locals turned out and almost nobody is at home or at work.

During the campaign Bill Clinton Visited Anaconda. I wonder if they're gonna be able to do some good with all the national attention?

Here, check out the Butte Newspaper, the Montana Standard.

BUTTE, Montana - Barack Obama is celebrating the 4th of July in Butte, Montana, attending a parade and picnic. It's a state that usually gives its three electoral votes to a Republican. Only two Democrats have carried Montana since 1948. Republicans typically take it for granted and Democrats usually write if off. But this year, Obama is spending a sizeable amount of time and money to try to win it.

John McCain after his trip to Colombia and Mexico is back home in Arizona. He's planning to spend the Fourth of July holiday at the family compound outside Sedona, with no campaign events on his schedule for the next few days.

The McCain Website hopes you have a "safe and happy 4th of July" and asks that you remember the troops.

With just three electoral votes and its reputation as a red state, Montana rarely sees presidential candidates in the summer before a general election. Republicans usually take the state for granted, while Democrats don't even try to contest it.

But Obama has been spending a sizable amount of time and money on Montana, hiring a state director and staff while running TV ads detailing his background and qualifications. Montana is among fewer than 20 states the campaign is targeting early.

"Montana is considered one of the very competitive states," Obama spokesman Caleb Weaver said.

Obama is spending the Fourth in Butte, the hometown of motorcycle daredevil Evel Knievel, where drinking is allowed in the streets.

"He is the kind of candidate that has shown he can run competitively in these types of states because of his ability to attract new people to the process," Weaver said. "Sen. Obama is an independent figure. He is very attractive to the independent-minded spirit of Montanans."

Democrats have made gains in the state in recent years, electing a populist as governor and ousting a longtime Republican U.S. senator. But in 2004, even as Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer was winning, Democrat John Kerry lost Montana by 20 percentage points.

Montana has a long tradition of voting Republican in presidential elections — Al Gore also lost by about 20 points. Bob Dole defeated Bill Clinton in 1996. Clinton did win four years earlier — but only with about a third of the vote, after independent Ross Perot split the conservative vote.

The last Democrat to win the state without the help of a spoiler was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, when he trounced Barry Goldwater — who, like this year's Republican candidate, John McCain, hailed from Arizona. But unlike McCain, Goldwater was marginalized as extreme.

Before that, the last Democrat to win Montana was Harry Truman, in 1948.

"It's unprecedented for a Democrat to come in and say that Montana is one of the 15 states we can win," said political scientist Craig Wilson, a longtime observer of Montana politics.

No other Democratic presidential candidate in memory has committed to Montana like Obama has this campaign season. His campaign promises "significant" investment in the state. And Democrats are buoyed by the possibility of a presidential campaign helping them with party building and get-out-the-vote efforts this fall.

McCain, on the other hand, has no staff in the state and has yet to visit Montana this election year. Yet the Republican still holds a natural advantage given the state's conservative bent, Wilson said.

"In my book, McCain still has to be the favorite in Montana," Wilson said. "Yes, Obama could win it. It just seems like a long shot."

The McCain campaign, meanwhile, remains confident. "The more often Barack Obama travels to Montana, the more voters will be reminded of why they disagree with him on the issues they care about most," said McCain spokesman Tom Steward.

Gun rights remain a key issue in Montana. Obama's position — he agrees that the Second Amendment establishes an individual right to bear arms yet believes guns are subject to "reasonable and commonsense regulation" — is viewed with skepticism by gun-rights advocates.

"It is a big deal out here," said state Rep. Dan Villa of Anaconda, a Democrat. "His mission over the next few months is to convince people he doesn't want their guns, he doesn't want more of their money. He needs to convince rural Montana we just want to leave you be."

Obama's trip to Butte takes him to a unique Montana mining town that is also the state's Democratic, union stronghold. It is one of a few places in Montana where Obama lost to Hillary Rodham Clinton in the state's June 3 primary.

"In Butte and Anaconda we have a real deep blue-collar streak," said Villa, who represents part of the area. "I think we saw that play out in the primary when Clinton won. But we are Democrats and will rally around him."

Democrats in the state were flattered when both Clinton and Obama visited during the primary — and are stunned it will continue through the general election.

"There will be busloads of us going over to Butte," Villa said. "It's a pretty exciting time."

This is the kind of stuff Kerry should have been doing. Obama has been to North Dakota 3 times so far. North f*cking Dakota. I remember in 2004, Kerry cut through the country on a train in the summer and gave a few speeches in hard core republican states, like Kansas, and his poll numbers in those states jumped. Then he just went back to Ohio and went on to lose. I also thought he should have tried some kind of red state push and not have written off 3/4 of the states.

Kerry was using the Clinton plan of triangulation.
Obama is using the Dean all 50 states plan.


Guess which one works?