Well we are nearly ready to say goodbye to June and are just about begin the month of July. Nearly one month ago, Obama locked up the democratic nomination for president. At that time, there were many predictions that Obama would get a quick bounce and then this race would tighten again as we got into the summer months. Now we are saying so long to the supposedly inaccurate June polls and we are now venturing in the somewhat more reliable month of July. And what does July appear to be telling us? Well, probably that McCain will soon begin to look fondly at what was possible in June, when he was only down a half dozen points. Despite the predictions from the pundits and the republican (how could those two groups be wrong?), Obama appears to be flying high while McCain continues to take a nose dive. We are beginning to see a steady trend of Obama pulling away from McCain in the polls. Current averages put McCain rapidly approaching the upper 30's, with 40.3% (down about six points from the beginning of June) and obama quickly approaching the half way point at 47.4%. Obama currently leads McCain by a stunning 7.1 points, which appears to be only the beginning as you can see in the trend lines beginning to show how the general election will shape up. Now we are not out of the woods yet, however, it has been said that if Obama can maintain this trend into late July, McCain's chances in November will become non-existent. No guarantees yet but we are rapidly coming to that point and there appears to be little McCain can do to reverse the trend.



And for some of you worries there, who are paranoid about the electoral vote, there is equally as good news on that front. Obama's average lead in state polls show the continued strengthening of his domination in the electoral vote, with landslide leads in every state Kerry won in 2004, substantial leads in some places bush won, and a further weakening of the GOP's grip on a large number of formerly solid red states.

Looking over the polls, his average lead nationwide, in the electoral vote, in individual states, and where McCain currently is, Obama appears to be in his most solid position of this entire election. If you wanted to find the highest point of his campaign so far, since this all started 18 months ago, it would be today.

The only question remaining isn't will Obama win the presidency, but what will be the margin? (and which demographics)

I am still not 100% confident about him winning. I think he will win, it seems like a very strong possibility but i am more like 75-80% confident about his chances. I can't see anything that could stop him but who knows?

If he does win, I just hope it is the opposite of the past 8 years. How miserable is this country under GW Bush?

I think the issues Bush has caused are deeper and wider than most Americans realize.
And that's why we're here.

There are things that won't ever get "fixed". There are others that will get fixed even better than before as a reaction to Bushco. But what ever happens in the next few years, the world is forever changed because of Bushco, and almost all of that change is not good.