http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20080613/pl_cq_...politics2897197
Obama Could Give McCain Home-State Blues
By Eric Pfeiffer, CQ Staff
Fri Jun 13, 1:13 PM ET
Democrats say Arizona could be in play this year even with favorite son John McCain heading the Republican ticket, and that they would be favored to win the state if Gov. Janet Napolitano was running with Barack Obama.
"Arizona is a swing state," said state Democratic Party spokeswoman Emily DeRose, "We're pretty committed to making John McCain fight for the state no matter what."
Leaders from both parties point to state population trends that have mainly favored independents. Still, Democrats have won two gubernatorial races in a row, including a landslide victory in 2006, and could realistically takeover the sate house where they are only down four seats.
A Rocky Mountain Poll conducted by the Behavior Research Center May 12 through May 20 had McCain leading presumed Democratic nominee Barack Obama by 50 percent to 39 percent, but called that a smaller margin "than one might expect for a favorite son." It said McCain could be in a "horse race" if Democrats effectively closed ranks behind Obama and remain competitive among independents.
A poll by Behavior Research last year showed Napolitano would beat McCain by double-digits, 47 percent to 36 percent, if the two were running for McCain's seat. However, Napolitano is considered a long shot to be Obama's running mate.
Republicans acknowledge an Obama-McCain race could be competitive although Democrats privately concede that McCain isn't likely to end up like Al Gore, who lost his home state of Tennessee in 2000, unless Napolitano is on the ticket. Their consolation is the belief that the state is solidly trending their way and that McCain will likely to be forced to spend money, and possibly extra time,
"If McCain were not the nominee, it goes blue," former Democratic Party Chair David Wade said. "Napolitano would be a huge, huge asset. I think we would be the favorite at that point.".
"It's all a matter of perspective on what's safe and what's not safe," said Sean McCaffrey, Executive Director of the Arizona Republican Party, who made a point of noting that McCain manager Rick Davis listed the state as a competitive "grey" area during a recent strategy video put out by the campaign. But McCaffrey said he also expects McCain to win, saying he is up by more than President Bush was in 2004. "The Bush campaign considered Arizona 'safe' when they were up by eight points," he said.
McCain has the advantage of having represented Arizona for more than a quarter century, but he also has a sometimes-unhappy base that went so far as to censure him in the 11th state district, which includes his home precinct. The state's Party Chair Randy Pullen publicly supported an immigration proposal that went up against McCain's. McCain won the state's Feb. 5 presidential primary, but with only 48 percent of the vote.
As for Napolitano on the ticket, her long-time strategist Barry Dill says she would help capture the same expanding segments of the state's population that led her to win 62 percent of the vote two years ago.
"It's very difficult for a Democrat to win in Arizona without independents and crossover Republican women," said Dill, who also served as the deputy state director for the Clinton-Gore re-election in 1996, the last time Democrats carried the state.
He says Obama should commit to making at least 3 visits to the state and that Arizona would be a perfect state to deploy both Bill and Hillary Clinton. "I think she could help tremendously," he said. "The Clintons are wildly popular."
Still, McCaffrey says Napolitano's chances of being picked are, "so much of a long shot, it's not even worth talking about." He says a number of influential business leaders and state legislators will act as daily surrogates for McCain's campaign and said he expects McCain to both buy campaign airtime and to make stops in the state. "Make no mistake, it's our goal to delivery a victory bigger than in 2000 and 2004," he said.
The major downside to Democrats if Napolitano was on the ticket is that if she gives up her post it would go to Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer. Wade says the benefits of a Napolitano vice presidency, or cabinet post, along with the possible state house majority, would outweigh ceding the governor's mansion for two years.
In fact, he says Brewer's tenure would likely lead to a contentious Republican primary in 2010. "There's already a list of heavy hitters that are wanting to run on the GOP ticket who are not going to be deterred by Jan Brewer as governor," he said.