John McCain is an awful speaker. Obama towers over him, in both physical stature and rhetorical ability. McCain has to be one of the worst nominees the GOP has ever fielded. Furthermore, we have the issues on our side: the disaster in Iraq, the recession, government incompetence.

It's a perfect storm for us to win.

So ...

Why is everyone celebrating? Why is everyone so giddy? Why all the gloating?

Haven't we learned anything from 2000? The GOP fielded an inarticulate buffoon named George W. Bush. We had the issues on our side: eight years of peace and prosperity.

And WE LOST!

Lesson: Don't let common sense or logic lull you into a fall sense of complacency. Bush's election in 2000 defied common sense or logic. It was a truly surreal nightmare.

Look to the unexpected, the anomaly, the absurd. Regard the opponent as formidable. Assume nothing, anticipate everything.

Don't "misunderestimate" the enemy!


That is all. I now return you to your regularly scheduled program, already in progress.

I think most of us have learned to never assume that anything is a done deal.

I did assume Bush would never get elected. I had no idea he and his party would actually conspire to steal the election!
I did assume Bush would not win reelection. I under estimated his base. I could not have guessed that a majority of Americans would, at the cost of human lives, give the man a chance to clean up his mess.

Do I think McCain can win election?
See above.

Yes, agreed we must realize that the GOP is still got a few tricks up their sleeves and they have been planning since 2006 after the elections on what and who they will have to face come November, Karl Rove is still out there and he is training them how to win and how to lull the Demo's into a false sense of security. I do think though they are worried over how to deal with Obama, they really thought we would nominate Hillary. But the dirty tricks and political espionage is still be thought out and fomented by the Party hacks. We do indeed need to expect the unexpected and keep out eyes and ears open for the SwiftBoat folks and Operation Chaos.

I think the danger is not in failing to anticipate what they might do, but in underestimating what has already been done.
There is evidence that Democractic gains would've been even greater in '06 but for a gamed system. The evidence of caging and voter supression may not be evident until after the fact. Easily compromised electronic voting machines are still in use. I've learned, here in Ohio at least, that an apathetic or poorly informed electorate actually prefer the now familiar machines to paper ballots. Even the paper ballots are counted by corruptable optical scanners and the most troubling thing to me is that self interested corporations still control our elections and count the votes.

Polls show Obama up 15%! McCain is floundering!!!!

Hold on. Let me reiterate the sentiment of my initial post: This is no time to celebrate. This is no time to let up.

Dukakis 1988 ... Deja Vu???


Poll Shows Dukakis Leads Bush; Many Reagan Backers Shift Sides

By E. J. DIONNE JR.
Published: May 17, 1988

Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the Presidential election in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Mr. Dukakis, the probable Democratic nominee, ran ahead of Mr. Bush, the almost certain Republican candidate, by 49 percent to 39 percent among 1,056 registered voters.

The survey, conducted May 9-12, represented a significant advance for Mr. Dukakis since a Times/CBS News Poll in March when Mr. Bush had 46 percent and Mr. Dukakis had 45 percent.

In the latest poll, Governor Dukakis of Massachusetts led in all regions, but he ran especially well in the Northeast and Middle West. The poll found Mr. Dukakis with very substantial advantages over Mr. Bush among women, union members, Roman Catholics and blacks. Shift Since 1984 Election

Strikingly, 28 percent of those who said they voted for President Reagan in 1984 said they preferred Mr. Dukakis over Mr. Bush this time; only 9 percent of those who said they backed Walter F. Mondale in 1984 switched to Mr. Bush. Mr. Dukakis was also far ahead among those who said they did not vote in 1984, and he scored well even in groups where President Reagan continues to be popular - notably among voters under 30 years old.

Many voters, for example, worried that Mr. Dukakis may lack the exprience to be President ...

The Republicans have been trying to paint Mr. Dukakis as a liberal, and the poll suggests they have good reason to try to do so. For now, only 27 percent of registered voters think of Mr. Dukakis as a liberal and this appears to be helping him win conservative votes.

The poll found that only about one-third of conservatives said they saw Mr. Dukakis as a liberal. In this group, Mr. Bush beat Mr. Dukakis handily, by a margin of about two to one. But among the two-thirds of conservatives who did not think of Mr. Dukakis as a liberal, he ran about even with Mr. Bush.

... Moreover, when voters were asked which party would do best at handling whatever they identified as the nation's most important problem - a question poll takers regard as a key leading indicator of voting decision - 40 percent said the Democrats and 29 percent said the Republicans. Democrats have never enjoyed such an advantage since the Times/CBS News Poll first asked the question in 1980, when indeed the Republicans had that big a margin before Mr. Reagan's first victory.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html...756C0A96E948260

Rove may still be out there, but, for now, he's on Fox's payroll, not McCain's. His dream of perpetual majority was downright crushed in '06, and continues to be in deep red special elections where the total focus of the GOP's resources could be focused. Smith (R-OR) just put out a campaign ad that touts his association with Obama. Republicans want to cater to their local bases, and McCain doesn't. I think we can all be pretty optomistic about the chances, here. There aren't any real active scorched earth political dynamos left in the GOP, and McCain has publicly denounced that kind of campaigning. Even if he hadn't, he's not the type of candidate that the repube base will get excited about enough to fund swiftboat type 527's.

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't put anything past them, but I don't think they'll be able to find willing soldiers for a campaign of corruption. I also believe that the margins of victory will be such that it won't come down to a Florida or Ohio this time around.

No kids, I believe that it's a safe bet that the Dem's will end up running the country in 2k9.

I reserve my pessimism for the type of leadership they will provide... you know what they say about absolute power...

Obama's been trying to tell you...

I'd also advise against setting youself up to be able to say "I told you so"
I agree in that the Dems will win control. That does not mean I expect nothing but progressive politics.
The conservatives have and will not have been eliminated, either in the Republican party OR the Democratic party!

Stay on the attack.

Every time McCain questions Obama's judgment on the surge -- which still hasn't brought any political reconciliation -- we need to challenge McCain's judgment on the invasion and occupation.

Remember, McCain supported Bush's immoral, illegal, and unprovoked war. It was McCain and Bush's monumentally poor judgment that got us into this disaster.

John McCain has been saying that he has foreign policy and military experience and judgment that other candidates (like ... Obama) don't have. If so, how could he have been so wrong on the most significant foreign policy decision in recent American history -- the decision to invade Iraq?

While Obama was correctly and publicly predicting what we'd face in Iraq BEFORE the invasion (for example, a long and costly military engagement and the unleashing of long-held religious and ethnic conflicts that would precipitate civil unrest, etc.) here are just some of the things that McCain was saying (many of which sound very similar to what we heard from Cheney):


“Look, we’re going to send young men and women in harm’s way and that’s always a great danger, but I cannot believe that there is an Iraqi soldier who is going to be willing to die for Saddam Hussein, particularly since he will know that our objective is to remove Saddam Hussein from power.” (John McCain, 9/15/2002 )

“He’s a patriot who has the best interests of his country at heart.” (John McCain, on the disgraced Ahmed Chalabi, 2003 )

“I remain confident that we will find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.” (John McCain, 6/11/2003)

“Absolutely. Absolutely.” (John McCain, asked by Chris Matthews, “you believe that the people of Iraq or at least a large number of them will treat us as liberators?” 3/12/2003)

“There’s no doubt in my mind that we will prevail and there’s no doubt in my mind, once these people are gone, that we will be welcomed as liberators.” (John McCain, 3/24/2003)

“I think the victory will be rapid, within about three weeks.” (John McCain, 1/28/2003)

“It’s clear that the end is very much in sight…It won’t be long. It, it’ll be a fairly short period of time.” (John McCain, 4/9/2003)

“Well, then why was there a banner that said mission accomplished on the aircraft carrier?” (John McCain, responding to assertion by Fox News’ Neil Cavuto that “many argue the conflict isn’t over,” 6/11/2003)

“I’m confident we’re on the right course.” (John McCain, 3/7/2004)

“We’re either going to lose this thing or win this thing within the next several months.” (John McCain, 11/12/2006)

“My friends, the war will be over soon.” (John McCain, 2/25/2008)


Why on earth would we trust the party resposible for the ill-conceived decision to invade Iraq and the party who mismanaged it once they were there to successfully get us out of Iraq? They've been tragically wrong so many times before.

http://community.comcast.net/comcastportal

Annie, Yes I agree but this party has been in charge for the past eight years and I think we have forgotten how to direct the country. You know us democrat's , we're like the Irish, one thing sure too happen, so many in one room, we're gonna fight each other until, one is standing!! LOL! All kidding aside, we have an opportunity to create a nation the likes that have not been seen since FDR, we have to keep the faith, trust that Obama and his crew can carry the nation to a new tomorrow, you know folks, we are part of the dream to a new and better tomorrow!!! Rocky and scary as that maybe, we have a chance to make the dream of 1776 live again for all of us.

GUARD AGAINST OVERCONFIDENCE!

Here's why:

The Election Calculator: A Preliminary 2008 Presidential True Vote Projection

The 2008 Election Calculator projects that Obama will win in a landslide: 71-59m (54.1-44.7%). The model calculates the True Vote based on the candidate’s share of returning 2004 voters and those who did not vote in 2004. The analysis is based on an estimate of total votes cast (including uncounted), but millions of (mostly Democratic) disenfranchised “caged” voters will never get to the polls. If they were allowed to vote, the landslide would be significantly greater than the 12 million vote margin.

BUT the official Recorded Vote NEVER reflects the True Vote. Accordingly, we can expect that Obama’s recorded margin will be closer to 64-61m. The landslide will be denied due to election fraud, just like it was in the 2006 midterms when the Democrats won 10-20 more seats than official results indicate.

Obama is expected to do better than Kerry did among blacks, Hispanics, new voters, moderate Republicans and Independents, but may not do as well with white Democrats.

There is no reason to believe that 2008 will be any different than 2000 and 2004. At least 3% of total votes cast will be uncounted and 75-80% will be Obama’s.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/200...nCalculator.htm





NEVER GIVE UP, NEVER SURRENDER!

I have two deep fears about the upcoming elections in November.

1.) The election will be tilted to a Republican win similar to what they did in 2000 and the Supreme Court will once again be brought in to "trump" whatever our legal beagles will try to stop the Repug's!

2.) There will be no election. Bush and Company will cancel the election due to a "national emergency". I have read countless articules how this is impossible in our democracy, but, I never thought our democracy would sink so low as to allow torture, past dirty tricks in past elections, spying on fellow Americans. I hope and pray I am wrong on this last point but I cannot shake the feeling that the current Administration is not ready to,"go gently into that goodnight.!"

How am I feeling?

ouch how about "discontent" and "annoyed"?

I don't know who is "we" here. Neither donkey or the elephant is the american people. I know i'm neither and having the 'best of the worst' isn't exactly a consolling feeling, but I am just hoping for a life raft of common sense.