http://www.alternet.org/environment/84960/...=903291#c903291
How Food Riots, Pricey Gas and Home Foreclosures Point to a Better Future
By Marjorie Kelly and Paul Raskin, AlterNet. Posted May 10, 2008.

We are beset today by a systemic global crisis that could open the way to hopeful transformation. It is up to us.

Can anybody make sense of what the heck is going on today? A lead story in the news covers the rioting in Haiti and a half-dozen other nations as food prices soar. Another front-page column reports that the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is seizing up credit markets worldwide and contributing to housing woes -- possibly even economic destabilization -- in Ireland, Spain, Britain and elsewhere. Other news reports the discovery of a huge fracture in Antarctica’s vast Wilkins ice shelf, drawing attention to the slow-motion crisis of climate change. And there are ongoing reports about water shortages in Africa and Asia, droughts in Australia, sky-rocketing oil costs, the razing of the Amazon and images of war and terror.

Is the conjunction of these various crises simply a coincidence? The answer is no. From a historical perspective it is possible to see an overall pattern that connects the dots. What is unfolding today is a systemic crisis, heralding the beginning of a large-scale shift at the deepest levels of cultural organization. We are in transition -- for the first time in history -- to a tightly interconnected global system. We have entered the planetary phase of civilization, in a passage that may prove as significant as the advent of agriculture or the Industrial Revolution.

When keeping our thermostats high melts ice sheets at the bottom of the world, when our housing crisis erodes the world economy, when filling our cars with biofuel from corn contributes to hunger a world away, we’re not in Kansas anymore. We need a new map of the world. The old one -- with its geopolitics based on the competition of self-interested nation-states and its economy growing exponentially atop a natural world of unlimited resources -- is vanishing, along with cheap gasoline.

The new map conceptualizes the world as a single global system with interacting, nested subsystems. In this view, lines of connection reach beyond national borders to embrace all of humanity -- linking the poor in Haiti to homeowners in Spain to investors in the United States -- and reaching beyond society to the larger earth community, encompassing even the very air itself. All are entwined in a common fate. All compose a single system and must find their place on a new map, as we rechart the world for a new era.

Transitions announce themselves in the language of crisis. We are in a time of turbulence as old patterns give way and new ones form. The multiple crises today signal a system transformation operating at the scale of the planet. Transformation is distinct from adaptation, which is the normal process of incremental adjustment to new conditions. Transformations are rare moments in history when dominant societal structures cannot cope with emerging developments and change in fundamental ways. With the converging lines of crises we face today, we may be entering a perfect storm of destabilizing stress.

We cannot predict the future. It may be good, bad or ugly, depending on how events unfold and how we respond. But scenarios can help us envision alternate futures, and our organization has -- with the aid of an international group -- crafted four scenarios of possible futures. In a "market forces" scenario, the United States continues with business as usual, other nations converge toward American lifestyles, economic growth remains the sine qua non of development, and environmental strain and cultural polarization intensify. In "policy reform," government seeks ambitious policies to protect the environment and reduce inequity; but with the ethos of consumerism unchecked, the reformist path could be overwhelmed by unsustainable trends. In "fortress world," reform fails and problems cascade into self-amplifying crises as the affluent retreat into protected enclaves amid oceans of misery.

In a "great transition" scenario, mounting crises lead not to breakdown but to breakthrough into a sustainable culture, where we shrink our environmental footprint, not only because we must live lightly and equitably on this small planet, but because quality of life matters more than quantity of stuff. It is a world where global interdependence -- as both a fact of history and a moral imperative -- replaces the heedless pursuit of self-interest as a guiding ethos. Such a resilient, just and livable world order is possible, though not inevitable. We do not offer facile hope. Large-scale social transformation does not come from small-scale woes: A time of troubles lies ahead.

Nevertheless, there is a case for hope. In the turbulence of transition, small actions can have big effects. We stand at a moment of unparalleled creative opportunity that calls for bold leaders and engaged citizens to articulate new visions of a 21st century social order and to mobilize a global movement to bring these visions to reality. Our world today generates more despair and resignation than vision and action. But it would not be the first time that an effervescence of popular political energy arrived unexpectedly to shift the direction of history.

We are beset today not by random bad luck, but by a systemic crisis that could -- on the other side of calamity -- open the way to hopeful transformation. It is up to us.

great in optomism, but lacking in substance...
Flowery talk does not negate the border we've crossed, from a possibilty of people recognizing limited convinience as a means to a soft landing in the creation of a sustainable civilization, to a new world where ignorance has created an inevitable crash landing. Hopefully, we can innovate the technologies necessary to avoid an all out global war for the dwindling pockets of oil, but I fear that many will suffer before the end. Sorry to be a buzzkill, but many have known the repercussions of a solely consumer driven, greed ensconced culture of indulgence, and far too many have procrastinated until the day before the report is due.

Hopefully, we'll end up with something like a C- instead of an F.

Maybe this is a horses for courses thing?
While some continue as if nothing they do will impact anything that happens on the broader scale, and others go off to fight over
dwindling oil reserves and others argue the pro's and con's of what fuel to put in their cars, still others will be seeking out like minded individuals and developing strategies for living in a post-oil, post capitalist economy, post hierarchical world*.
Maybe...?

There's a lot of comments along these lines (only not quiet so nicely put) AlterNet, and I wasn't quite getting what their problem was until now. It seems it all boils down to perception! Thanks Suess, you've helped me straighten this out in my head a bit.


*I'm not trying to put anyone down in that statement, I just haven't got time to dress it up for anyone right now!

I didn't feel put down, but I don't think you were adressing me...

I believe that optomism creates a better, more habitable culture, but I'm afraid that those soccer moms who didn't want to get stuck in the snow durring a nor-easter (in suburban streets)decided our long term fate by focusing on their short term comfort by buying durring the US SUV craze. Truth be told, it's larger than that, but it's a symptom of a pandemic of ignorance to long term repercussions of short term decisions.

I don't doubt the infinite ability of the human mind to innovate, but I do doubt the ability of the human mind to work outside of the constructs of socially imposed limits created by ego in the scientific field. For example, a scientist has garnered world wide support, both financially and intellectually by innovating through old constructs of science. There is no motivation for one to break the mold, and create truely new and constructive ideas. Who would give a grant to a scientist that went out on a limb and created free, clean energy out of a wholely new perspective? No grant provider would take a gamble on a crap -shoot, even to give one an opportunity for the funds to prove their theory wasn't a crap - shoot. We kill innovation through a fear of losing capital on risk, even if that risk would create a brighter future. This is perpetuated by the fact that most foundations are funded by large companies who don't want drastic change. They make their billions through the way the world works now! They'd rather fund private space exploration based on fossil fuel propulsion that fund a researcher working with magnetism as an engine. We know that fossilfuels burn. Magnets don't. why risk a large sum of money failing to produce when they have the cornerstone in fossil fuels already built? People like to speak about innovation, but when it comes to putting money where their mouth is, they can't seem to find their mouth.


PS - I'm not sure what a "horses for courses thing" is.

Guess what? I didn't think it was overly optomistic as much as it states human reality. People as a whole tend to be reactive, and not proactive. Example, look at Americans political scene today. Does anyone doubt that Obama's virtual lock on the presidency is a direct reaction to the horribly failed policies of the Bush and administration and the Republican party? 4 years ago would any of us have guessed that a black liberal would be the next president?

Another example? How many of us have seen big arse SUV's with a for sale sign in the window, and the owner can't give the thing away, while the sales of small cars like the smart car have gone wild? Is this not a reaction to gas prices that continue to rise? Just 2 years ago SUV's were still the hottest segment of American car sales!

Another example? Check the news stories lately. Global climate change has entered and has become part of the American language. It's everywhere! Awareness of the issue, and general desire to get busy on the subject has become a real priority. 3 years ago, when bush took his 2nd term, nobody was even talking about the possibility.



Change is coming, and in many ways it's already here. The very fact that this thread exists, is proof of that!

Ummm... As a gore proponent, I'm surprised that you don't remeber when his film came out. And it wasn't as though that was the first time we'd heard about global warming, it's been rearing its ugly head since the seventies. The truth is, the only reason why people are looking closely at it now, is because its too late to fix it peacefully and comfortably. We got on this train of thought as it was barreling toward a busted tressal, over a void of economic collapse and catasrophic shortage of necessary staples for life. We didn't start to see this shift in view toward eco-friendly ideas untill sticking with the status quo started to eat into our ability to live at the same comfort level that we're used to. We've short-changed our ability to learn and grow by feeling as though innovation wasn't necessary. "Why fix what ain't broke?" well, now it's broken. and we're in for either the cost of fixing the damn train, or walking to the destination, both of which are uncomfortable ideas that many (americans at least) will aknowledge, but will do nothing about, because if they examined it, they'd see reality, and they're still locked into the idea that if they ignore it, except by paying it lip service, it will go away. The government will fix it. Isn't that why we elect them and pay them?

I didn't say that no one had talked about global warming. I stated that the words have become a part of the language in that you hear these "words" everywhere! This represents awareness, NOT actual progress. Such human progress though always starts with awareness.

Suess. You really expect change to happen in 2 or 3 weeks? Real change, such as this, actually takes years. In the case of climate change, many of those years of that process have already passed. One example is the Gore movie you mentioned.

Yes, we haven't done things well. It's that lack of quality that focuses a need for change, because if we HAD done things barely acceptably, there would be much less cry for change.

Remember in the Gore movie when they put the frog in the hot water?

No I don't. This is exactly my point. We're careening into a brick wall. The train analogy fits here too. It takes a long time for the brakes of a train to bring it to a complete stop. I belive the world (most of it anyway) sees the broken tracks and the brick wall ahead... but it would be next to impossible to figure a way to engineer a new set of breaks to stop it before it hit the broken track. The parts are in motion, bringing all of us toward this brick wall. How can you examine the structural pieces of the leess-than-adequate breaking system while we're on the machine that's careening us toward our demise?

If we could figure out a safe way to stop it, get off the damn thing, and look at its structural stability and function, we might be able to fix it.

Unfortunately, we keep expecting the person next to us to absorb the risk, and jump from the speeding steel beast. The problem is, even if that were to happen, the train is moving at such a pace that that brave soul wouldn't cath much but a blur on the way to oblivion. He might make great headway after the machine, and all that it carried, turned into a twisted bulk of unrecognizable, useless waste. Tut that does little for those that can't help but sleep away the hours in their cozy, cushy seats.

Maybe, just maybe the train wreck is what is needed to get a new train?

That's why it's up to us to change those structures by innovation outside of (i.e. without) them.
I'm not claiming that this is some walk in the park on the horizon. There are many truly ignorant and foolish people out there (I dare say they are in the majority) and we have a LONG way to go before any changes become manifest.
I am saying, though, that if we don't make the necessary changes, if we don't innovate and invent, if we don't find new methods of going about the business of living, and quickly, then we will be f*cked. And that is the driving force, the catalyst for change!
And that's where things get hopeful. We will innovate, and we will invent. Human resourcefulness is pretty astounding! Right now I know that there are groups preparing for a future without oil ( http://transitiontowns.org/Main/HomePage ) and I believe that's the first step towards a sustainable, workable future in which the modes and paradigms, including economics, right down to the use of money we live by today will become ( I hope!) a notable chapter in history.


'Horses for courses': Putting a flat runner in a steeple chase would be choosing the wrong course for that horse (or vice-versa?) - Like putting a box thinker outside the box. All are good and valuable, just not designed for particular courses or modes of thinking.



True, that.