http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/2...7173/244/460459Potential VP Candidates and the General Election Narrative
by Stroszek
Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:31:09 AM PST
Yes yes, I know, the land between here and that firewall is about to be doused with a metric ton of napalm, but this is less of a wishful candidate diary and more of a political geek diary. Unlike the consultant-mangled efforts of 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama's campaign thrives on a very important quality: a coherent theme. Regardless of whether you find it resonant or just so much empty rhetoric, Obama has carefully sought to convey a progressive platform as a "message of hope," a fundamental break with the excesses of conservatism represented so faithfully by the Republican Party. For those not invested in strawman arguments against Obama, the general message is clear: "You know how the government is failing you? Well, a new policy approach can fix that." There remains, however, some ambiguity as to how Obama will further articulate this narrative.
Stroszek's diary :: ::
The Republicans have failed in such diverse ways that there are many options available to Democrats. The charges against them can range from the ideological (your ideas are flawed) to the purely practical (your method of governance doesn't work). Accordingly, rather than just being another name on the ticket, Obama's choice of VP candidate will largely define how he intends to mature this message into a definitive attack on Bush's legacy. So, should he reinforce the progressive change message to provide the starkest conceivable contrast with Republican ideology? Should he go with an elder statesman to convey competence and deflect the question of inexperience? Should he run with a Washington outsider to sharpen his critique of D.C. corruption? Or should he emphasize unity in order to portray Bush/McCain as radicals well outside the mainstream of America's political traditions? Read on for some baseless speculation into the myriad possibilities!
CHANGE
Congressman Xavier Becerra, California
A rising star and solid progressive, Xavier Becerra would reinforce the youthful image of the Obama campaign and energize the crucial Hispanic vote. However, despite his increasing stature in the House of Representatives, Becerra remains a relative unknown, both as a public figure and a campaigner. Yet, assuming Becerra has no skeleton's in his closet, this could also work to Obama's advantage to have another "blank slate" on the ticket. Furthermore, Becerra would likely deliver New Mexico with ease and could possibly make Arizona competitive, all while paving the way for the first Hispanic president.
Former Senator John Edwards, North Carolina
Though I suspect Edwards is flatly uninterested in playing second fiddle again, VP offers can have a strange effect on a politician's neurochemistry, so the possibility cannot be ignored. Edwards' reputation as a progressive advocate and superb campaigner don't need to be restated here. There is some concern that Edwards isn't a very good team player, though obviously, Obama isn't Kerry and Axelrod isn't Shrum.
Senator Russ Feingold, Wisconsin
A netroots favorite, Senator Feingold would bring a powerful progressive voice to the ticket, reinforcing Obama's credibility on issues ranging from the Iraq occupation to ethics and finance reform (in fact, Feingold's presence would help highlight Obama's most significant piece of passed legislation). Feingold's reputation as an outspoken critic of the Bush Administration would make him a natural fit for the role of the negative campaigner, and in an Obama Administration, he would be a reliable force in keeping "Bush Dogs" in line. Being from the upper midwest, Feingold would secure the key battleground of Wisconsin while reinforcing the Democrats' hold on Minnesota, the site of the 2008 Republican convention. On the downside, Feingold's rhetoric may be too fierce to mesh with Obama's appeal for partisan reconciliation, and there would be some concern as to how a twice-divorced, Jewish liberal would go over in more conservative areas of the country. Then again, this ticket already defeated McCain/Thompson once.
Former Vice President Al Gore, Tennessee
Since his progressive resurrection after the tragedy has 2000, Gore has become a Democratic folk hero and a voice of unparalleled moral authority on global issues. As such, the unlikelihood of Gore signing on as VP is matched only by the benefits his presence on the ticket would provide: outsider credibility, a strong sense of legitimacy, and an unmatched degree of experience. And if "party unity" is still a concern going into the convention, this is how you resolve it. The only downside is that Gore might tie Obama too closely to the past and reopen old wounds from 2000. Then again, reminding people what they were denied when the Supreme Court crowned Bush might make the "change" message all the more resonant.
Others: Barbara Boxer, Claire McCaskill, Jon Tester
COMPETENCE
Senator Evan Bayh, Indiana
Probably the "safest" choice imaginable, Bayh is a conservative Democrat who has served as both governor and senator of an Ohio-neighboring red state. Yet, his ample experience is still accompanied by a fairly youthful demeanor, and his years of preparation for a deferred presidential run has made him well prepared to jump into a national race. Yet, as an unabashed DLCer with presidential ambitions of his own, he may not be willing to buck his carefully cultivated image, leaving the possibility for the sort of campaign trail drama that plagued Kerry/Edwards.
Senator Joe Biden, Delaware
A well-known and well-liked senator, Biden is the ultimate "experience" candidate. As a mainstay of committee hearings and Meet the Press panels, he would bring an instant aura of credibility to Obama's campaign and would serve well as a relentless (though perhaps abrasive) attack dog. Of course, Biden is also hopelessly gaffe-prone and his own sense of authority could lead to conflict within the campaign. Also, a long-sitting senator would seem to conflict with Obama's change message, especially given his well known ties to special interests.
Former Senator Tom Daschle, South Dakota
A close confidante and mentor to Barack Obama, Daschle is already deeply involved in the Obama campaign and would be able to bring his experience to the ticket without any concern for maintaining message discipline. However, Daschle's work as a lobbyist has already been a subject of attack by Obama critics, and memories of his shameless capitulation in the darkest days of the Bush Administration, concluding with a stinging defeat at the hands of John Thune, may have permanently tarnished his image. On the other hand, in an Obama Administration, he would serve as an invaluable liaison to Congress.
Senator Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas
A conservative Democrat from a potential battleground state, Lincoln could be considered a bolder variation on Bayh. Lincoln would bring red state credibility (including that crucial Southern twang), but like Bayh, she might also be unwilling to deviate from her conservative tendencies. Then again, the none-too-subtle message sent by millions of "Obama/Lincoln" signs might just be worth it.
Senator Jack Reed, Rhode Island
A classic breed of Democrat, Jack Reed would provide an eloquent, informed voice of experience without the problems associated with Biden. Also, as a former Army Ranger, he could offer more credibility to the ticket on military issues. Then again, New England politicians rarely fare well on national tickets.
Governor Bill Richardson, New Mexico
He could secure New Mexico and possibly put Arizona into play, but for all his experience, Bill Richardson is also a big ego and a hopelessly mediocre campaigner. The oft-whispered rumors of infidelity may also end up a big problem for Obama's "family man" image. Then again, his willingness to shift positions would make him very malleable to the needs of the campaign.
Senator Jim Webb, Virginia
Though many in the netroots have been disappointed by Webb's centrism, he remains a powerful voice of authority on national security and, arguably, the most influential freshman senator in history. Bolstering Obama's appeal in increasingly swingable Virginia, Webb has a proven ability to attract independents and sensible Republicans, and his 2006 senate run indicates that he would be merciless in the attack dog role. Of course, Webb's senate seat is invaluable to a working majority, though it is very possible that Governor Tim Kaine would be able to secure it down the line.
Others: Hillary Clinton, Jon Corzine, Chris Dodd, Dick Gephardt, Bob Graham, Bill Nelson, Ed Rendell
REFORM
Retired General Wesley Clark, Arkansas
An outsider with plenty of D.C. connections, Clark offers a unique hybrid of reformer and national security gravitas. Despite a disappointing 2004 campaign, Clark has honed his skills as a politician, working closely with progressive advocacy groups such as Vote Vets. As a retired general, his red state appeal is obvious, and he would provide a decisive counterpoint to McCain's claims to military expertise. With that said, he's still not a professional politician and has only one actual campaign under his belt.
Governor Janet Napolitano, Arizona
A popular red state governor with a history as a tough-as-nails prosecutor, Napolitano would complement Obama's "reformer" message while also bringing an impressive, if somewhat conservative, record of leadership to the table. Given her extensive popularity, Napolitano might also bring Arizona into play, a development that would provide quite a bit of embarrassment for McCain. Napolitano, however, lacks any foreign policy experience, and persistent (though untrue) rumors about her personal life might put the ticket on the defensive against a Republican whisper campaign. Also, if Obama/Napolitano were to win, Arizona Democrats would lose their best candidate to replace McCain in the Senate.
Governor Bill Ritter, Colorado
A soft-spoken governor from an emerging swing state (and the site of the 2008 Democratic Convention), Ritter also has tremendous blue collar appeal and his work as an attorney (and missionary) would lend credibility to a "reform" campaign. Ritter's so-called "semi-progressivism" would also serve the party well in its efforts to make inroads into the mountain west, though his more conservative stances on social issues may not sit well with coastal Democrats.
Governor Ted Strickland, Ohio
Along with Bayh, Strickland has been considered one of the two most likely VP candidates for Senator Clinton. A savvy red state campaigner with experience as both a governor and a congressman, Strickland would, at the very least, tip Ohio into a shade of light blue while expanding Obama's blue collar appeal. On the other hand, Strickland does not have any foreign policy experience of note, though in an economy election, this may not matter as much.
Others: Phil Bredesen, Chet Culver, Jim Doyle, Mike Easley, Tim Kaine, Joe Manchin, Brian Schweitzer, Kathleen Sebelius, Eliot Spitzer
UNITY/CONSENSUS
Senator Chuck Hagel, Nebraska
A red state senator, a veteran, a true Republican maverick, and a fierce critic of McCain's Iraq policy, Hagel could help Obama steamroll McCain with a unity message directed against the war. Unfortunately, Hagel would conflict with Obama on just about everything else, a fact that would prove problematic both on the campaign trail and in the senate. As such, unless Iraq descends into an unprecedented degree of chaos, Hagel would probably be unlikely to sign on with the Democrats.
Former Congressman Lee Hamilton, Indiana
A moderate Democrat who has served as a national security guru for leaders in both parties, Hamilton has been on "potential VP" lists since Dukakis, but despite having faded somewhat from the public eye, Hamilton has never been more relevant. A co-chair of the 9/11 Commission and one of the two derided heads of the aborted Iraq Study Group, Hamilton would provide a decisive rebuke to McCain's trumpeting of the escalation, while vanquishing any concern that an Obama Administration is unprepared for foreign policy challenges. Of course, a Clinton/Hamilton '92 ticket never materialized in part due to pressure from reproductive rights groups, and these days, Hamilton's views on social issues will seem even more archaic. Still, if he's brought on specifically to advise on foreign policy (with no realistic presidential ambitions of his own), this may not be a concern.
Former Senator Sam Nunn, Georgia
A conservative Democrat who went independent after retiring from the Senate, Nunn is a revered voice on national security issues, particularly on Obama's signature issue of nuclear proliferation. Though Nunn has said he would decline any VP offers, his longstanding White House ambitions are well known, and an Obama/Nunn ticket may offer him his last realistic chance of getting there. As a low-key figure who exudes a sense of peerless expertise, he would complement Obama nicely without overshadowing him. Of course, Nunn's social conservatism would certainly trouble progressives, but whereas Hagel would come to the ticket in a storm of controversy, Nunn would simply help mitigate Obama's problem with elderly Reagan Democrats. Still, if Obama is looking for an Obi-Wan to match Bush's Vader, Nunn is the guy.
Others: Michael Bloomberg, Lincoln Chafee