QUOTE
Rudy's Soft Underbelly
by DemFromCT
Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 04:13:39 AM PDT
While it's fresh, check out the LA Times-Bloomberg poll on the three early contests. Like the analysis from last month on Rudy's Frontrunner Status, the poll finds Giuliani's support is soft:
Among Republican voters, Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, trails Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he lags behind Fred Thompson in South Carolina.
However, Giuliani is only a few points behind the leader in New Hampshire and South Carolina -- within the poll's margin of error -- suggesting that the race in those two states is too tight for anyone to be declared a clear front-runner.
In a worrisome finding for all the Republican candidates, the poll also found that many GOP voters in those key states are only lightly committed to their choices: Though they have been showered with attention by the campaigns, a sizable 72% of Iowa Republicans who say they favor a candidate also say they may decide to back someone else.
Among Democrats in those three states, the race is more firmly settled: The poll found that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has consolidated her lead on a sturdy foundation of support among women, blacks and, in some states, labor union households. And while Clinton previously had established leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina, she now appears to be gaining momentum in Iowa, long considered friendly territory for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
In addition, First Read highlights this CBS News/New York Times poll:
Giuliani’s support is tenuous and declining, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll out [yesterday]. While the former New York City mayor still leads in the poll, 27% to 22% over Fred Thompson, it marks the first time his support has dipped below 30% in the poll -- a trend which has been seen in other surveys in the past month. Giuliani's support has declined as Thompson has taken up some of the political oxygen, but it also appears Giuliani’s experience as mayor of a large city is not necessarily "the right kind of experience for becoming president of the United States." Only about half of those surveyed say it is compared with about 80% who believe being a senator or governor is the right experience.
To sum up from the LA Times:
The Times/Bloomberg survey also reveals that Republicans remain dissatisfied with their field of candidates, even after Thompson's long-awaited entry into the race. In South Carolina, 28% of Republicans are dissatisfied with the party's candidates.
"This is a really scary election for a Republican," John Haley, an Iowa butcher who participated in the poll, said in a follow-up interview. "I'm not feeling confident."
What he said. And please note it ain't over for anyone. The Dems are more solid than the R's but (please repeat after me) it's early.
The poll shows a high interest in the races across the board ranging from 95% of New Hampshire Democrats to 84% of South Carolina Republicans. They also show more volatility in the GOP race with 72% in Iowa, 50% in New Hampshire and 64% in South Carolina saying they still might change their mind on a candidate.
For Democrats, the change factor is 59% in Iowa, 47% in New Hampshire and 45% in South Carolina.
In other words, on both sides, this thing is FAR from settled. And Rudy's lead is as likely to be challenged as a New Yorker cutting in line... IOW, it could go either way.
by DemFromCT
Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 04:13:39 AM PDT
While it's fresh, check out the LA Times-Bloomberg poll on the three early contests. Like the analysis from last month on Rudy's Frontrunner Status, the poll finds Giuliani's support is soft:
Among Republican voters, Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, trails Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he lags behind Fred Thompson in South Carolina.
However, Giuliani is only a few points behind the leader in New Hampshire and South Carolina -- within the poll's margin of error -- suggesting that the race in those two states is too tight for anyone to be declared a clear front-runner.
In a worrisome finding for all the Republican candidates, the poll also found that many GOP voters in those key states are only lightly committed to their choices: Though they have been showered with attention by the campaigns, a sizable 72% of Iowa Republicans who say they favor a candidate also say they may decide to back someone else.
Among Democrats in those three states, the race is more firmly settled: The poll found that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has consolidated her lead on a sturdy foundation of support among women, blacks and, in some states, labor union households. And while Clinton previously had established leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina, she now appears to be gaining momentum in Iowa, long considered friendly territory for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
In addition, First Read highlights this CBS News/New York Times poll:
Giuliani’s support is tenuous and declining, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll out [yesterday]. While the former New York City mayor still leads in the poll, 27% to 22% over Fred Thompson, it marks the first time his support has dipped below 30% in the poll -- a trend which has been seen in other surveys in the past month. Giuliani's support has declined as Thompson has taken up some of the political oxygen, but it also appears Giuliani’s experience as mayor of a large city is not necessarily "the right kind of experience for becoming president of the United States." Only about half of those surveyed say it is compared with about 80% who believe being a senator or governor is the right experience.
To sum up from the LA Times:
The Times/Bloomberg survey also reveals that Republicans remain dissatisfied with their field of candidates, even after Thompson's long-awaited entry into the race. In South Carolina, 28% of Republicans are dissatisfied with the party's candidates.
"This is a really scary election for a Republican," John Haley, an Iowa butcher who participated in the poll, said in a follow-up interview. "I'm not feeling confident."
What he said. And please note it ain't over for anyone. The Dems are more solid than the R's but (please repeat after me) it's early.
The poll shows a high interest in the races across the board ranging from 95% of New Hampshire Democrats to 84% of South Carolina Republicans. They also show more volatility in the GOP race with 72% in Iowa, 50% in New Hampshire and 64% in South Carolina saying they still might change their mind on a candidate.
For Democrats, the change factor is 59% in Iowa, 47% in New Hampshire and 45% in South Carolina.
In other words, on both sides, this thing is FAR from settled. And Rudy's lead is as likely to be challenged as a New Yorker cutting in line... IOW, it could go either way.