USA Today
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007...ll_N.htm?csp=34


Poll: Clinton establishes sizable lead over Obama
6-18-07
By Susan Page, USA TODAY


WASHINGTON — New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has regained a double-digit lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll two weeks after the survey found the Democratic presidential rivals essentially tied.

Among Republicans, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani remains ahead, but former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, who hasn't formally entered the race, for the first time edges into second place over Arizona Sen. John McCain.

The results show a Republican race that could be roiled by Thompson, who is targeting conservatives unsatisfied with their choices in the field so far. He is costing Giuliani most: A third of Thompson's supporters say they would otherwise back the former mayor.

The Democratic contest generally has been stable, though a USA TODAY Poll taken June 1-3 had shown Obama 1 percentage point ahead of Clinton, 30%-29%. In the new survey, Clinton leads Obama 33%-21% if former vice president Al Gore — who has neither entered the race nor ruled it out — is included among the candidates.

She leads by 39%-26% if Gore isn't included. Former North Carolina senator John Edwards is then third at 13%.

"There have been 500 stories and 500 polls, but actually little has changed in this race," says Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist. "She has a consistently strong lead that is holding up over time."

The new poll includes 334 Democrats and 182 independents who lean Democratic. Penn says including independents contributes to a survey's volatility because those voters are less committed to a candidate as well as less likely to vote in party primaries.

Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, said the previous poll "either picked up a short-term change or … was a function of unusual sampling, which happened to pick up Democrats who were more pro-Obama than the underlying population."

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and the Quinnipiac poll last week reported findings similar to the new Gallup survey. Both showed Clinton with a 14-point lead and Thompson tied with or ahead of McCain.

The USA TODAY Poll, taken last Monday through Thursday, has a margin of error of +/—5 percentage points among the subsample of 393 Republicans or Republican-leaning independents and the 516 Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents.

On the GOP side, Thompson's rise is bad news for his major rivals.

Giuliani leads the field at 28%, down 4 points from two weeks earlier. Thompson is second at 19%, up 8 points. McCain is at 18%, 1 point lower. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is fourth at 7%, down 5 points.

"It's a long campaign and it's only June, and these polls are going to move around," says Terry Nelson, McCain's campaign manager. "There's a lot of campaign for folks still to have and still a lot of issues to be debated." Most Republicans aren't firmly settled on any contender, he says.

He predicts that Thompson will get "a bump" when he formally announces his candidacy, likely next month.

Although Thompson's lead over McCain isn't wide enough to be statistically significant, it underscores the political problems plaguing the Arizona senator. Six months ago, he was tied with Giuliani at the top of the field.

The next benchmark: fundraising reports for the second quarter of the year, due next month. McCain lagged behind Romney and Giuliani in money raised during the first quarter.

When Thompson's supporters were asked their second choice, 34% picked Giuliani; 16%, Romney; and 14%, McCain.

If the GOP contest came down to Giuliani or Thompson, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents chose Giuliani, 53%-41%.

If the Democratic contest came down to Clinton or Obama, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents chose Clinton, 53%-42%.

I have a really hard time believing she has that big of a lead even at this juncture. I saw this stroy elsewhere. I gotta tell you, this trend continues and we will have a strange election.

FYP.

Can anyone say "media framing?" Honestly, electoral politics are such a joke to me now. It's very obvious that corporate donors and corporare media choose the President, not voters. Big money and status quo media spin the debate and set up whatever candidates they view as worthy, while the actual voters are usually left with a choice between, in the words of South Park, "a giant douche" or "a turd sandwich."

An election in which the candidates are the product of fictitious invention by the media is no election at all.

hey, at this point I'd be happy with one that wasn't fixed by the neocons. Haven't been a hell of a lot of those recently. Even if hillary wins, at least I won't feel like shooting myself every time I turn on the TV or read the news. I'll still be pretty depressed, I'm sure, but not suicidal.

You want a bet?
... I think! I mean 'suiside' - it is a bit strong isn't it!

But still and all, Hilary Clinton!

yeah, I know...
I really don't want it to happen, but it'll be better than now.
Yeah I was being a bit excessive with the suicide thing.

I simply cannot get over how the media fawns over Hillary, there is definitely something rotting in Denmark I tell ya....

Well, after Hillary's remarks about blacks and AIDS, I dont see her doing much better. Im having a hard time getting too awfully intrested in the elections right now. Dont know if because its so far away, or if because im on vacation, or my lack of computer access. I will however say Ive re-discovered WCPT (Chicagos Progressive Talk/Air America) so im doing my best to stay informed.

Dem Warmongerer is the front runner. Ahead of the "OTHER" Dem Warmongerer.

A vote for a WAR candidate, regardless of Party, is a vote for more war. BOTH have raised the spector of more war in the Middle East. I see that the blood thirsty Dem's are chasing after THEIR candidate.

But you know, there IS peace through war. Everlasting peace, WHEN YOU'RE DEAD!

I know as well as all of you, that Obama is just a puppet for Clinton.

Scene: Hillary anounces she is running for president, then after about a month Obama steps in and anounces his candidacy. Hillary already knew that Obama was going to fail he is to young to have such a responsibility even though he proved to be a worthy candidate.

I also saw through him, and knew in the end Hillary will go home with the ticket. Hillary (romba thighs) will use his downfall to her advantage and then run her tenicals of libralism across the halls of the white house sucking the good ol' American conservatism right out of every one of the remaining congress members. Then she'll be like Burger King and have it her way!

I Think I did OK for a 13 year-old, I try to do the best I can on grammer

Could this be a thirteen year old troll?
or a real troll masquerading as a thirteen year old?
we've got our eye on you little one!

Wow... one of those...

Was that a complement?? or an insult?

Well, it's nice to see the key demographic of Michael Savage visiting. 13 year old boys. Hey bud, can I clue you in on something? Hillary isn't a liberal. Neither is Bill.

And can I clue you in on something else? Hilary's thighs have not one single thing to do with her candidacy. Strange, considering Gulliani's hair line, but TRUE!

I think you did just fabulous.

thanks for gracing us, Mr. foley... does your head hurt from hitting that keyboard over and over again?

DOH!

Interesting little thread you guys got here.


Question.

Isn't this a forum for adults, and don't the forum guidelines state as much?

http://www.oldamericancentury.org/forum_guidelines.htm

No, the word "adult" is not in there.