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sky of mind
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Clinton suffers virtual defeat in MoveOn vote on Iraq
By Klaus Marre
April 12, 2007


Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination, lagged behind her main competitors, as well as some lower-tier candidates, in a straw poll taken after a virtual town hall meeting on Iraq.
Seven Democratic White House hopefuls participated in the April 10 event, sponsored by the influential MoveOn.org Political Action PAC, and MoveOn members picked Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) as the candidate who “would be best able to lead the country out of Iraq.”


Obama received 27.87 percent of the vote, followed closely by former Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards with 24.84 percent. A total of 42,882 MoveOn members participated in the vote.

Clinton finished a distant fifth with 10.7 percent, also trailing Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) with 17.18 percent and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson with 12.26 percent.


The vote could indicate trouble for Clinton, who is criticized by liberals for not having been more outspoken about the war when Congress authorized it.


Gadzooks!
Well, if she can't win, let's hope she can't run, either.
sky of mind
QUOTE(Gadzooks! @ Friday, 13 April 2007, 9:09 pm) [snapback]90058[/snapback]
Well, if she can't win, let's hope she can't run, either.




Lets hope she'll spread some campaign cash where it'll do some good.
Gadzooks!
Not likely. She's a neoliberal, and will find a way to absorb whatever she cannot account for as campaign expenses. Does anybody ever ask what Kerry did with all that leftover money?
soon2b
To play devils advocate, these items are cherry-picked from a much longer and not one-sided debate in the American Prospect about whether or not she can win. I think she shouldn't be underestimated. To be elected, historically, a Democratic candidate must be perceived as a centrist. She's been moving (successfully) in that direction.
QUOTE
An ABC News poll of Democrats and Republicans in January found that men were divided 49 percent to 48 percent on Hillary, while women backed her with 59 percent positive to 39 percent negative impressions. According to a December 2006 Washington Post-ABC News poll, the same divide existed among Democratic voters. Clinton had a 20-point lead among Democratic women, with 49 percent of them -- but only 29 percent of men -- backing her as their first choice. Since then she has increased her margin of support enough that if women alone were voting, and the election were held today, she would almost certainly be elected the next president of America.
The good news is that candidates can succeed when they learn how to ride the whirlwind. In June 1992, candidate Bill Clinton had an unfavorable rating of 47 percent, according to a Times Mirror survey -- nearly identical to what his wife's is today. He managed to reduce that dramatically come fall (as his wife will need to) and win the election. Similarly, Gore had a 43 percent unfavorable rating in April 1999, according to a Pew Research Center survey, but managed to knock that down to the mid-30s by October 2000 and win the popular vote in November
Further, "people use candidate sex as a cue in evaluating candidate ideology when they are faced with a woman candidate, but not when faced with a man." Clinton has the most moderate voting record of the four Democratic senators contending for the 2008 nomination, but it has taken two years of calculated moves on her part to get the public to understand this. In May 2005, 54 percent of respondents in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll said they considered her a liberal, and just 30 percent a moderate. But by August 2006, 67 percent were calling her a political moderate, according to a Time magazine poll -- a dramatic shift in opinion.

This moderation has put Clinton in a position to help resolve tensions around some truly divisive national issues, such as abortion, on which a female leader has more freedom to stake out new ground and also faces more expectations to act. Since 2005, Clinton has helped reframe the abortion debate so as to co-opt the most effective turn in contemporary anti-abortion rhetoric. As documented by Sarah Blustain and Reva Siegel in these pages [see "Mommy Dearest," October 2006], the anti-abortion movement's newest stratagem has been to argue that abortion hurts women, and to flood legislators with letters from grieving post-abortion women. Clinton has worked to defend choice even in that environment by unifying left and right around the shared goal of reducing the number of unwanted pregnancies.

A February Washington Post-ABC News poll, according to the Post, "found that 52 percent of Democrats said her vote was the right thing to do at the time, while 47 percent said it was a mistake. Of those who called it a mistake ... just 31 percent said she should apologize." Further, "among Democrats who called the war the most important issue," Clinton led Obama 40 percent to 26 percent, while Edwards, who has made contrition part of his presidential platform, is rapidly being outflanked by Obama and Clinton in Iowa, his strongest state.
http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?sectio...articleId=12574
sky of mind
Ordinarially I might agree with your assessment Sooner, except these aren't ordinary times.

At this time the country is actively moving to the left. A Centrist is seen by many as being little more than Republican lite.
And even those people we refer to with disdain as "sheeple" want something very different than the neo-conservative Republicanism. They may not know exactly what they do want, but they do know what they do not want.


With this in mind I don't think Hillary can win. Obama is the dark horse, the cinderella kid, the underdog, the new kid on the block, and he's cleaning her clock! Or at the very least, keeping up with her and and considering Hillary has Bill in her corner, Obama is doing exceptionally well. (Think where Obama would be if he had Bills endorsement)



Hillary can't win for 2 reasons.

Hillary is the Democratic candidate the Republicans want, because....
Hillary is old guard, and does not represent a new direction.
soon2b
QUOTE(sky of mind @ Sunday, 15 April 2007, 12:01 am) [snapback]90156[/snapback]
Ordinarially I might agree with your assessment Sooner, except these aren't ordinary times.

At this time the country is actively moving to the left. A Centrist is seen by many as being little more than Republican lite.
And even those people we refer to with disdain as "sheeple" want something very different than the neo-conservative Republicanism. They may not know exactly what they do want, but they do know what they do not want.
With this in mind I don't think Hillary can win. Obama is the dark horse, the cinderella kid, the underdog, the new kid on the block, and he's cleaning her clock! Or at the very least, keeping up with her and and considering Hillary has Bill in her corner, Obama is doing exceptionally well. (Think where Obama would be if he had Bills endorsement)
Hillary can't win for 2 reasons.

Hillary is the Democratic candidate the Republicans want, because....
Hillary is old guard, and does not represent a new direction.

You're kinda young Sky (not many people tell you that these days, eh?). Ask Mr Natural about George McGovern, the belief that the country was moving to the left, and the lesson therein. To the left? Yeah, but never as far as we'd like to believe. Think Ned Lamont.
sky of mind
QUOTE(soon2b @ Sunday, 15 April 2007, 5:27 am) [snapback]90162[/snapback]
You're kinda young Sky (not many people tell you that these days, eh?). Ask Mr Natural about George McGovern, the belief that the country was moving to the left, and the lesson therein. To the left? Yeah, but never as far as we'd like to believe. Think Ned Lamont.



I recall McGovern, and the point is well taken and understood.
None the less, I'll hold to my prediction.

I consider it an oddity that people so much revere Bill, while at the same time can't stand his wife.
It's as if people are somehow sympathetic to the reasons behind his extra marital situations.
(Would Midwestern mothers offer up their pudgy daughters to the man? Maybe?)

Bill has a midas touch, and right how his wife has his blessing.
I think if Bill hadn't already had his two terms, he could win the election. And he is every bit as centrist as she is.
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