http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/02/washingt...agewanted=print


September 2, 2006
Rove’s Word Is No Longer G.O.P. Gospel
By ADAM NAGOURNEY and JIM RUTENBERG

WASHINGTON, Sept. 2 — Karl Rove, the president’s chief political adviser, is struggling to steer the Republican Party to victory this fall at a time when he appears to have the least political authority since he came to Washington, party officials said.

Mr. Rove remains a dominant adviser to President Bush, administration officials say. But outside the White House, as Mr. Bush’s popularity has waned, and as questions have arisen among Republicans about the White House’s political acumen, the party’s candidates are going their own way in this difficult election season far more than they have in any other campaign Mr. Rove has overseen.

Some are disregarding Mr. Rove’s advice, despite his reputation as the nation’s premier strategist. They are criticizing Mr. Bush or his policies. They are avoiding public events with the president and Mr. Rove.

Influential conservative commentators have openly broken with the White House, calling into question the continued enthusiasm of evangelicals, economic conservatives and other groups that Mr. Rove has counted on to win elections. Some Republicans are ignoring Mr. Rove’s efforts to hold the party together on issues like immigration and Iraq.

In a reflection of this difficult environment, the White House has decided to concentrate nearly all its resources on the critical fight to keep control of Congress, party officials said, largely stepping away from the governors’ races, at least for now.

In Michigan last week, Dick DeVos, a Republican candidate for governor and a longtime contributor to Mr. Bush, startled national Republican Party leaders with a searing attack on the president for failing to meet with the leaders of the Big Three automakers. “We’re being ignored here in Michigan by the White House, and it has got to stop,” Mr. DeVos said.

His communications director, John Truscott, said the attack was timed to coincide with Mr. Rove’s visit to Michigan for a fund-raiser, in an effort to goad Mr. Bush into a response. Asked if the DeVos campaign was worried about angering Mr. Rove, Mr. Truscott said, “That never even crossed our mind.”

Representative Thomas M. Davis III of Virginia, who was chairman of the Congressional Republican campaign committee in 2002, said Mr. Rove and the White House seemed measurably less involved this year.

“It’s been more of a bunker mentality, don’t you think?” Mr. Davis said. “They have been good in terms of raising the money. The problem is, you have a president with a 38 percent approval rating, and it just changes the dynamics of what they can do.”

This midterm election presents Mr. Rove with a particularly difficult challenge. Beyond testing his reputation for always finding a way to win, the outcome could determine the extent of Mr. Bush’s influence for the rest of his presidency and shape the way he is perceived by history. Mr. Rove has warned associates that a Democratic takeover in Congress would mean an end to Mr. Bush’s legislative hopes and invite two years of potentially crippling investigations into the administration.

The White House said that Mr. Rove would consider an interview for this article if it were conducted off the record, with the provision that quotations could be put on the record with White House approval, a condition it said was set for other interviews with Mr. Rove. The New York Times declined.

The diminishment in Mr. Rove’s influence reflects the fact that his power is to some extent a function of Mr. Bush’s popularity. In some cases, Republican candidates have made a deliberate strategic decision that the way to win is to distance themselves from the White House.

But a central problem, Republicans said, is that Mr. Rove is seen as juggling two potentially conflicting agendas: protecting the president’s legacy and taking steps to help Republican candidates win re-election.

Mr. Rove enters the campaign season after a year of personal tumult. Until mid-June he faced the threat of indictment in the investigation into the leak of a C.I.A. officer’s identity, and in April, he was stripped of some of his duties in the White House. Mr. Rove was moved from a West Wing corner suite to a smaller windowless office across the hall, a shift one friend said he found demoralizing.

Mr. Rove’s associates said that throughout the leak investigation, he was coiled and withdrawn. They said his demeanor brightened the moment he learned he would not be indicted. Associates described him as displaying relentless optimism about an election that is filling Republicans with a sense of doom.

Mr. Rove determines the bulk of the president’s schedule and is a crucial figure in determining what Mr. Bush should say this fall. He is the White House’s main conduit to conservatives whose willingness to turn out at the polls could help determine the party’s success.

Mr. Rove has become a star fund-raiser for the Republican Party, raising $10,357,486 at 75 events in 29 states, according to the Republican National Committee. Mr. Rove runs regular White House meetings, typically at 6:30 a.m. in the White House mess, reviewing high-profile House and Senate races with the White House political director, Sara Taylor, and sometimes with Congressional leaders. He shares his view of the landscape with Mr. Bush in a daily 8:30 a.m. briefing.

Mr. Rove — with Ken Mehlman, the Republican National Committee chairman, and Ms. Taylor, both of whom have assumed a higher profile than in past years — has settled on a narrow strategy to try to minimize Congressional losses while tending to Mr. Bush’s political strength. The White House will reprise the two T’s of its successful campaign strategy since 2002: terrorism and turnout.

They have determined that control of Congress is likely to be settled in as few as six states and have decided to focus most of the party’s resources there, said Republican officials who did not want to be identified discussing internal deliberations. Those states will likely include Connecticut, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Washington, though officials said the battle lines could shift in coming weeks.

The White House is largely turning away from the 36 governors’ races, although Mr. Rove and Mr. Bush will continue to help Republican candidates for governor raise money, party officials said. The decision has broad significance because building a foundation of Republican governors had been a main part of Mr. Rove’s goal of creating a long-lasting Republican majority.

The Republican National Committee expects to spend over $60 million, which would be a record, for the midterm elections. Officials say half of that would pay for get-out-the-vote operations in the targeted states.

In states where Mr. Bush’s presence could be problematic, like Pennsylvania and Connecticut, the turnout operations give Mr. Rove a way to provide below-the-radar help.

Mr. Mehlman, whom Mr. Rove assigned to master get-out-the-vote techniques years ago, has handed custom compact discs with lists of voters, along with information on their voting and consumer habits, to every state Republican chairman.

One administration official said that Mr. Rove was also looking beyond Mr. Bush’s term, to the creation of his library. And he is quietly making his influence felt in the 2008 presidential campaign. Most significantly, the White House has signaled to Bush supporters that they are free to work for Senator John McCain of Arizona, which could provide Mr. Rove a network of intelligence in 2008. Mr. Rove has made clear to associates that he is not supporting any candidate in that race.

Mr. Rove’s associates said it was inevitable that his clout would diminish somewhat given the president’s declining approval rating and the history of two-term presidents generally weakening by their sixth year in office.

“Anytime you’re in the position of being the prime mover, and you’ve got five people saying we should do it this way and five others saying we should do it that way, you’re going to aggravate five people inevitably when you come down with a decision,” said Ed Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman. “But Karl is willing to do that, and you’re going to get your share of slings and arrows when you are.”

Indeed, Democrats — aware of Mr. Rove’s reputation for pulling out all the stops when necessary and his ability to call on a shadow political machine of interest groups and donors to attack opponents — said they remained worried about what kind of effort Mr. Rove might unleash in the closing weeks of the campaign.

But the limits of Mr. Rove’s influence were made clear this year when he was unable to persuade the speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, Allan G. Bense, to run in the Republican primary for Senate against Representative Katherine Harris, whom the party judged to be a weak candidate. Mr. Rove invited Mr. Bense for a sit-down at his vacation home in Rosemary Beach, Fla., as part of a long but failed effort to get him to challenge Ms. Harris for the nomination, said Towson Fraser, a spokesman for Mr. Bense.

And Mr. Rove’s associates say he appreciates the need of candidates to distance themselves from the White House to win. But he was described as angered by candidates who he thought were going too far in criticizing Mr. Bush out of concern that attacks could further damage an already weakened president, they said.

Mr. Rove meets in person only infrequently with the Republican heads of the Senate and House campaign committees, Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Representative Thomas M. Reynolds of New York, though Mrs. Dole said he was always ready to jump on a plane to a fund-raiser at her request.

Mr. Reynolds said the White House had been untiring in raising money and providing surrogates. But he made clear that when it came to the House races, he was running the show.

“I’m the one who put together what I think is our best effort to win a House majority in 2006,” Mr. Reynolds said.

In the Ohio Senate race, Mr. Rove has found himself in a back-and-forth with Senator Mike DeWine. Mr. DeWine has at times resisted Mr. Rove’s counsel that he employ an unrelenting focus on terrorism, exhibiting what other Republicans described as ambivalence about a television commercial depicting the World Trade Center burning.

Candidates and strategists across the country say that they hear from Mr. Rove infrequently.

Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, said he encountered Mr. Rove at a dinner at Vice President Dick Cheney’s home here in late July. “We chatted for a minute,” Mr. Romney said. “He was interested in how the governors’ races were looking. But it was interest as a fellow Republican.”

http://ktla.trb.com/news/la-na-midterm3sep...oll=ktla-news-1





GOP's Hold on House Shakier

As Labor Day gets the campaign in full swing, Democrats are counting on voters unhappy with one-party rule and Bush's leadership.

By Janet Hook, Times Staff Writer

September 3, 2006

WASHINGTON — Raye Haug, a retired librarian in northern Virginia, for years happily voted to reelect her longtime congressman, Republican Frank R. Wolf. But the GOP record of the last six years — on foreign policy, the economy and the environment — has so soured Haug that she wants to vote for a Democrat in this year's midterm election.

Any Democrat.

"I don't think I've ever before been willing to vote for someone just because of their party affiliation," said Haug, who walked precincts one sweltering Saturday for Judy Feder, Wolf's Democratic opponent, even though she knew little about her.

As Labor Day signals the start of intense campaigning for the Nov. 7 election, the political landscape is crowded with disgruntled voters like Haug, who tell pollsters they don't like the direction the country has taken under President Bush and Republican rule in Congress.

Most voters are just now beginning to pay attention to the campaign, but candidates and their advisors have been mobilized for months. After 12 years of Republican dominance, Democrats have their best shot in years at winning control of Congress — especially the House.

Early this year, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report identified 42 House Republican seats as competitive; now it lists 55. The analysis sees only 20 House Democrats in competitive races. Democrats, who need to gain 15 seats to win control, also have narrowed Republicans' traditional advantage in fundraising.

The mood of the electorate continues to be clouded by deteriorating conditions in Iraq.

"That's a recipe for a GOP disaster, and there is no reason to believe that things will change dramatically between now and election day to improve Republican prospects," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of a nonpartisan newsletter that recently predicted a Democratic takeover of the House.

The Senate remains more firmly in Republican hands, but even GOP strategists fear their party could reduce their 55-45 margin of control.

The winds are blowing so strongly against the GOP that it raises a new question: If Democrats cannot win control of Congress under these circumstances, when will they?

If they do not triumph in such a hospitable climate, it will be a tribute to the strength of the political machine the GOP has built to cement the realignment that has given them control of Congress since 1994 and the White House since 2000. The party's agenda is tailored to mobilize its base, and its campaign machinery has made a fine art of getting Republican voters to the polls.

And most House members are protected by district boundaries that have been drawn by political bosses to keep seats safely in one party's control.

"If we do endure this cycle with a majority in both chambers, you have to argue this has been an unbelievable 12-year run," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster. "You'd have to give Bush and his administration credit. That is an enduring legacy."

Helping secure that legacy are incumbents like Wolf, who make the Democrats' job harder than it seems. Although he is facing a well-financed opponent in a district that shows signs of becoming more Democratic, Wolf is still heavily favored to win. A 13-term incumbent who sits on the powerful House Appropriations Committee, Wolf has been bringing home the bacon for decades and is well-known by his constituents.

Even Haug — who plans to vote against him — concedes, "I like the guy. He has been a good congressman."

That's why Republicans are trying to keep the focus on individual candidates and local issues, while Democrats are trying to turn the election into a broad national referendum on one-party rule in Washington, the war in Iraq and Bush.

The parties' different strategies were on display last week in a day of campaign events in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Democrat Joe Sestak held an event on the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina to criticize Bush's response to the disaster and to link the district's Republican representative to the administration's failures.

"If anybody's happy with George Bush, you are happy with Curt Weldon, and I am not your man," Sestak said. "He is super-glued to the president."

In a nearby district, first-term Republican Rep. Michael G. Fitzpatrick traveled to a dairy farm to say he had bucked the Bush administration to secure funding for a locally popular conservation program. "I've struck a real chord of independence," Fitzpatrick said.

Some Republicans take heart from a few inklings that Democrats may have peaked too soon.

In recent polls, Bush's approval ratings rose after the arrest last month of terrorism suspects in London. A mid-August Gallup poll found that generic support for a Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican narrowed to 2 percentage points, down from double digits in earlier surveys.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, called those findings fleeting, and he pointed to other signs that voters are as restive as they were in 1994, when they threw Democrats out of power in the House and Senate.

A key question is whether surly voters will punish incumbents of both parties. They have in early primaries: In Connecticut, Sen. Joe Lieberman lost the Democratic primary to an antiwar liberal, Ned Lamont. In Alaska, GOP Gov. Frank H. Murkowski came in third place in his party's gubernatorial primary. One House member from each party has been defeated so far in primaries.

But many analysts predict any throw-the-bums-out tide will take a greater toll on Republicans. Tim Storey, election analyst for the National Conference of State Legislatures, sees warning signs for the GOP in the results of 53 special elections for state legislative seats. In 13 cases, incumbents were dumped; all but two were Republicans.

Most analysts see Democrats' gaining control of the Senate as a long shot, because so many competitions are in states that vote Republican in presidential elections. Virtually every contested race would have to go the Democrats' way for them to gain the six seats needed for a majority.

One sign of Republicans' angst is the number of candidates distancing themselves from Bush and the party.

In Missouri, GOP Sen. Jim Talent's first television ad says: "Most people don't care if you are red or blue, Republican or Democrat." In Maryland, GOP Senate candidate Michael S. Steele told reporters that being a Republican was like wearing a scarlet letter.

The trickiest campaign issue for members of both parties is Iraq.

Most Democrats have criticized Bush's handling of the conflict but have been divided over what alternative course to back. Still, with Iraq riven by sectarian violence, more Democrats have felt it politically safe — even advantageous — to speak out against the president's policy. Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin (D-Md.), running in a contested primary for Senate, bragged in his first television ad of his vote against the Iraq war.

A handful of Republicans have criticized Bush's Iraq strategy. They include Fitzpatrick, who said in an August mailing to voters, "Mike Fitzpatrick to President Bush: America needs a better, smarter plan in Iraq."

But most Republicans have stuck with the GOP approach of lambasting Democrats for advocating a "cut and run" strategy—even though they acknowledge the status quo in Iraq threatens to harm them politically.

"Without more progress on the ground in Iraq, it's going to be a political problem for Republicans," said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.). "I don't think anything rivals Iraq as an issue that shapes the political environment in district after district."

In northern Virginia, however, Feder's long-shot campaign against Wolf is hardly putting that issue front and center. Her pitch to campaign volunteers in Sterling, Va., recently was a broader message.

"Are you ready for change in Washington?" asked Feder, a healthcare advisor to President Clinton who is now dean of the Public Policy Institute at Georgetown University. "We need to get rid of these guys."

Feder is hoping to gain traction in the district — which stretches from the suburbs of Washington, D.C., to West Virginia — because last year a GOP-weighted electorate voted for Democrat Timothy M. Kaine for governor. Dan Scandling, a Wolf spokesman, said he was confident that Wolf's close ties to his district — it is near enough to the Capitol that the congressman returns home every night — would help him easily beat his opponent. But he is not taking anything for granted.

"In this environment, you take every candidate seriously," Scandling said. "If you don't, you're crazy."

janet.hook@latimes.com

(INFOBOX BELOW)

*

Midterm elections: races to watch

Here is a selection of Senate and House races that are bellwethers in the battle to control Congress. They will measure the effect of important trends shaping this year's political landscape, such as public opinion of President Bush, the war in Iraq and immigration.

Senate Races



Pennsylvania

Sen. Rick Santorum ®, incumbent



Bob Casey Jr. (D),

state treasurer



State of the race: Trailing by double digits in polls for months, Santorum has narrowed the gap but is

still at about 40%.

Quick take: Darling of the Christian right, the senior GOP leader risks defeat in a swing state. His head is the one Democrats want most. His loss would be a blow to Bush and conservatives — and to Santorum's White House ambitions.

Rhode Island

Sen. Lincoln Chafee ®, incumbent



Stephen Laffey ®,

Cranston mayor



Sheldon Whitehouse (D), former state attorney general



State of the race: Chafee faces a tough GOP primary Sept. 12. If he survives, an even tougher fight looms in November.

Quick take: The Senate's most liberal Republican is buffeted from both right and left. Democrats would have an easier time beating conservative Laffey in this blue state. Chafee's campaign tests whether there is still room in U.S. politics — and in the GOP — for centrists.

Maryland

(Incumbent Democratic Sen. Paul S. Sarbanes is retiring)



Michael S. Steele ®, lieutenant governor



Kweisi Mfume (D), former U.S. representative, former NAACP head



Benjamin L. Cardin (D), U.S. representative



State of the race: Contentious Democratic primary Sept. 12. July poll showed Cardin with bigger margin over Steele than Mfume.

Quick take: Both the Democratic primary and general election may test African American party allegiance. Steele is a rare breed: African American GOPer. Will he pick up black Democratic voters if Mfume, also black, loses the primary?

Washington

Sen. Maria Cantwell (D), incumbent



Mike McGavick ®, businessman,

former Senate aide



State of the race: Cantwell is considered vulnerable to a strong challenger, but it is not clear by how much. There has been little public polling.

Quick take: Cantwell, like Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.), has taken heat from liberals in this deep-blue state for supporting the Iraq war. Will antiwar Democrats stay home on election day? McGavick must fight a strong anti-Bush current.

House Races

Connecticut 5 (northwest)

Rep. Nancy L. Johnson ®, incumbent



Chris Murphy (D),

state senator



State of the race: Johnson is favored, but is still vulnerable to a Democratic tidal wave.

Quick take: First tough race in a decade for the 12-term moderate in a state where Bush is unpopular. A test of whether the Northeast will become even more Democratic.

Ohio 15 (Columbus)

Rep. Deborah Pryce ®, incumbent



Mary Jo Kilroy (D),

county commissioner



State of the race: The fight of Pryce's political life, but she's still favored.

Quick take: Pryce, a senior Republican leader, is hurt by Ohio GOP scandals and Bush's unpopularity. A test of whether Democrats can dislodge longtime incumbents from once-safe seats.

Pennsylvania 8 (Philadelphia suburbs)

Rep. Michael G. Fitzpatrick ®, incumbent



Patrick Murphy (D),

former prosecutor



State of race: July Democratic poll favored Fitzpatrick, 44% to 38%

Quick take: The first-term Republican, in a swing district, tries to distance himself from Bush on Iraq and the environment. Murphy is an Iraq war veteran. Test of whether moderates will be dragged down by an unpopular war and president.

South Carolina 5 (north central)

Rep. John M. Spratt Jr. (D), incumbent



Ralph Norman ®,

state representative

State of the race: A long shot for Republicans.

Quick take: Republicans paint the longtime incumbent as out of touch with a conservative district. But a huge fundraising advantage keeps Spratt favored to win. The race is likely to show limits to GOP march through the South.

West Virginia 1 (Wheeling)

Rep. Alan B. Mollohan (D), incumbent





Chris Wakim ®, state representative

State of the race: Mollohan's running hard, favored to win.

Quick take: Dogged by ethics problems, 12-term incumbent faces his first serious challenge in years. A test of whether corruption accusations will hurt Democrats as well as GOPers.

Source: Los Angeles Times

File this under MSM gossip.

We've known that the propaganda minister's job has always been a corrut one based on painting the Leader as glorious and strong, while minimizing the critics as weak and fragile.

LOL GOSPEL. LOL

As if his is the word of God.

For a while there Turdblossum held the world in the palm of his hand.