Jack
Saturday, 26 August 2006, 11:44 am
QUOTE(soon2b @ Saturday, 26 August 2006, 8:29 am) [snapback]70152[/snapback]
Sherrod Brown, the congressman from Loraine OH who is running against Mike DeWine is VERY liberal, I love the guy and some polls show him with a slight lead. I'm thinking, damn, this is too good to be true. The PR guys who did the Swift Boat ads against Kerry are already working with DeWine and of course Sec. of State Blackwell's doing his best to create conditions favorable for another stolen election. I figure about next month the big Republican bucks'll start rolling in with 24/7 negative ads and it's a bankroll Dems just can't match. I know it's gonna get real ugly but I'm keepin' the faith.
Ted Strickland, the Dem running for Gov. against Blackwell is a conservative Democrat (a minister in fact) has a comfortable lead, probably too big for even Diebold to flip, and not much to attack on. Because he has no kids they tried to get it out that he must be gay, but it backfired and they apologized. I think he'll be okay.
Maybe but the people in ohio have become very distrustful of the republicans in their state, which may help unseat dewine. The most recent polls have had dewine down by about 8, so there is some hope there. Also, the dems are currently out pacing the republicans in fundraising and i am sure that Dean is going to be pumping a lot of money into Ohio to try and turn the state blue. While i agree that we can't just assume that the dems are going to win this time, i think we also need to realize that just because the republicans have a plan or run attack ads, that doesn't mean they are going gain anything. The democrats are not helpless after all. Stay positive.
Also, I disagree with the comparison between this election and 2004. A lot has changed since then. First off, American's views towards republicans have soured in the past two years. Bush's approval at this point in 2004 was about 48%, now it is in the mid-30's. A lot of negative news has come out in the past two years, from Katrina, to Iraq, to Plame and Rove, social security, Terri Shivo, gas prices, Ambramoff, ect. There is also the fact that terrorism, a major issue which kept a lot of people from wanting to vote democrat in 2004, has pretty much lost all of its affect on the American people. Second, that was presidential election, not a mid-term congressional election. In 2004, everything centered around bush and kerry. That is not the way things are any more. It was a polarized electorate fighting for two men, both of who, many people felt passionately. This time, it is hundreds of individual races, in a democratic leaning year. Third, kerry was not up by 10 at this point(i dont' think ever actually). Here is what late August looked like:
Zogby(8/30/04):
Bush-49%
Kerry-47%
George Washington University(8/17/04):
Bush-47%
Kerry-49%
TIPP-(8/17/04)
Bush-43%
Kerry-43%